Spurs vs Man Utd, Sunderland vs Arsenal and City vs Liverpool: The Narrative.

Tactical Previews And Predictions For Three Big Games.

Our GW11 tactical previews are for:

• Tottenham vs Man United

•⁠ Sunderland vs Arsenal

• Man City vs Liverpool

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from Man City fan Luke who is confident Erling Haaland will have a good day on Sunday. 🗣️📱

Spurs vs Man United

Red Devils To Test Frank’s Tottenham Tenure

Last week’s piece in The Narrative discussed how Chelsea’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium presented Thomas Frank a unique opportunity to set up his team to play in transition (like they have done away from home this season) against a team who have struggled managing transitions this season. Instead, Spurs doubled down on their uninspiring home performances and produced just 0.10 xG en route to defeat. Despite thrashing Copenhagen 4-0 in the Champions League midweek, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will no doubt be anxious ahead of this weekend.

In contrast, Ruben Amorim reacted to Manchester United’s poor form earlier in the season by making changes and learning – such as finding his ideal right-side in Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo against Sunderland or placing less emphasis on controlling build-up and more on balancing his midfield. United’s win at Anfield was perhaps the furthest Ruben Amorim will ever waiver from the style of play he so vehemently defends. While Tottenham aren’t quite the force Liverpool can be, a similarly pragmatic approach could suit the Red Devils this weekend.

The question then becomes how far Frank will be willing to part ways with his conservative attempts at controlling home games to increase the chances of a result. He will feel that a strong response is imperative after last week’s disaster, and United, while improved, remain fallible.

To Be Frank

It’s easy to begin questioning the credibility of Tottenham’s new manager after the frustration shown by some fans after last weekend’s defeat to Chelsea. We’re likely a few weeks away from suggestions being made that Frank ‘isn’t cut out’ to manage a club the size of Spurs. But the reality is probably far from that.

Prior to leaving Brentford, Frank was the third longest serving Premier League manager – behind only Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta. Very few clubs can negotiate a first season in the top-flight, avoid the dreaded ‘second-season syndrome’, then sell key players such as David Raya and Ivan Toney and continue to compete. For the same manager to conquer each of these challenges, is almost unheard of in modern football. A longer transition period to a bigger change than the Dane is used to was surely to be expected.

Hosting United is a perfect opportunity for the Dane to disparage any doubts over his credibility to manage at the elite level. Many of the flaws exposed by Chelsea last weekend are unlikely to be punished with the same ruthlessness as the Blues did.

Trusting The Game Plan

Much has been made of how poor Tottenham – and Xavi Simons in particular - were in possession. It’s true – sloppy passes frequently led to the home side giving away the ball – but the bigger issue than individual moments was how badly Tottenham were structured.

The image below shows Pape Sarr having just received the ball after Spurs recover possession. The Senegalese midfielder’s first instinct is to find a forward pass, but he has no options.

The same goes for Simons in the lead up to Chelsea’s goal. The Dutchman receives the ball while three White shirts are all unmoving within five yards of each other, and while Djed Spence is waiting in an advanced position rather than going out wide to offer an option for ball progression. There were simply no cohesive build-up patterns for most of the game.

When Tottenham did occasionally manage to break the first line of Chelsea’s press, they only ever turned themselves back into trouble. Below, Sarr has received the ball facing away from play, with only Pedro Porro (who himself is being covered off) in his vision. Chelsea’s press was well-coordinated throughout the afternoon.

So while Spurs were in many ways, the architects of their own downfall, Maresca’s Blues were equipped to capitalise on any mistakes. That is highly unlikely to be the case this weekend, as United, however rejuvenated their form, remain poor at engaging a press.

As a result, Spurs will be hopeful of establishing settled possession more frequently and finding ball progression more straightforward. Spence and Porro will remain wide with Rodrigo Bentancur and Joao Palhinha in a double pivot. With United unlikely to commit many men forward, they should be able to find their attacking players such as Simons or Mohammed Kudus, in positions where they are more comfortable on the ball.

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Amorim’s Adaptations

To combat this, it’s essential that Amorim understands his side’s weaknesses. In recent weeks, he has combated the overload his midfield often faces by having Luke Shaw jump onto an opposition forward (as shown above) when the ball is in the opponent’s defensive third. By having Shaw backed up by the defensive-thinking Diogo Dalot at left wing-back, United have struck a balance which suits their strengths.

Amorim will expect Spurs to go player-to-player and engage a high press in build-up, and the Portuguese has adapted his side to negotiate this in recent weeks.

United’s build-up has previously been reliant on Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro in a double pivot, but the two have gained additional support from Matheus Cunha dropping into midfield in recent weeks. Below, Cunha drops deep and receives a line-breaking pass, producing a delicate flick for Fernandes who has become a spare man.

If United can break the first line of Spurs’ press, they will be left player-to-player with Diallo and Mbeumo, two fast, direct wingers, with space to run into down the right-wing. Impetus will then be placed on Micky Van de Ven to act as Mbeumo’s marker while also ensuring double cover with Kevin Danso on Benjamin Sesko.

Closing Thoughts

The result of the game hinges on how effective Frank’s men can press. Spurs going player-to-player can certainly yield a result for the Lilywhites, but if United’s recent form has given them confidence to break the press, there will be space for them to exploit in behind.

As a result, both teams could approach the game in a risk averse manner. Spurs will likely press player-to-player but allow United a spare man in favour of having double cover at the back. Amorim’s men, meanwhile, will be cautious of high turnovers in build-up, aware that Tottenham have been poor in creating chances against a settled defence.

It seems set to be a nervy Saturday lunchtime for both sets of fans.

Score Prediction: 1-2

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