Spurs vs Chelsea, Liverpool vs Villa and City vs Bournemouth: The Narrative.

Tactical Previews And Predictions For This Weekend's Big Games.

Our GW10 tactical previews are for:

• Tottenham vs Chelsea

•⁠ Liverpool vs Aston Villa

• Man City vs Bournemouth

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from upcoming Spurs tactics creator Kish Patel of Lilywhite Lab, who is quietly optimistic about Saturday’s London Derby. 🗣️📱

Spurs vs Chelsea

Recent Premier League history would struggle to find a derby quite like Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea. In an era where rivalries have become too often defined by mutual respect, Chelsea and Spurs’ disdain for each other feels nearly irreparable.

Both sets of fans are likely in two minds over how to assess their seasons so far. Tottenham sit third in the Premier League but haven’t won a home league game since they faced Burnley back in August. The Blues, meanwhile, are ninth and were undone by Sunderland last weekend, but have also demonstrated their potential with emphatic wins over Liverpool and Ajax in recent weeks.

Enzo Maresca will be all too aware of his side’s five red cards in their nine previous games, so priority for the Italian should be preparing his young squad not to let the occasion get to them – or at least, not to let the occasion lead to a premature dismissal.

Assuming he can do that, then Saturday night should host a fascinating tactical battle, alongside the fire and ire of a classic grudge match.

Frank’s Fragilities

Spurs’ bipolar form 17^th and 1^st in home and away form respectively - is the biggest indicator of the learning curve that Thomas Frank is embarking on. At home, Spurs have struggled under the weight of expectation. Frank has never managed a club expected to dominate games, and shaping a team to control possession rather than absorb pressure and counterpunch requires a very different skillset.

Their game against Bournemouth was most emblematic of this. After conceding in the fourth minute, Frank’s men spent the afternoon in a losing gamestate but failed to establish any sense of control or consistent chance creation. They produced just 0.19 xG on the day.

Frank’s learning curve also explains Tottenham’s brilliant away form. They conquered Manchester City with a ruthless counterattack and by engaging a high press in moments where the home side were vulnerable. Last weekend, they utilised set-pieces against Everton to establish a winning gamestate early on, and spent the second half absorbing pressure and counterattacking when the opportunity arose – essentially playing exactly how Frank’s Brentford would have done.

These factors suggest that Frank’s skillset seems well-equipped to beat Chelsea, an opponent expected to look to assert themselves even as the away side, despite Spurs’ poor home form. So how might his gameplan play out against the Blues?

Double Pivot Dilemma

Frank’s build-up patterns at Brentford were first and foremost, conservative – an approach he hasn’t departed from in his first few months at Spurs. He has relied on a double pivot, normally Rodrigo Bentancur and Joao Paulinha, to provide stability in midfield while his back four all stay in conventional areas of the pitch.

This provides passing lanes which make a high press difficult to employ, but with six outfield players committed to the first phase of build-up, advancing the ball from the double pivot has been Spurs’ difficulty.

Yet against the Blues, the stability of a double pivot will be vital in preventing Maresca’s creative players from dominating the middle of the park. The benefit of a fixed double pivot is that when Spurs lose the ball, they are already set to defend the central areas which Chelsea value so highly in their 3-box-3 shape.

Yet at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Sunderland provided a blueprint to teams eager to prevent Chelsea establishing their preferred shape.

From the early stages, Sunderland condensed the space between their defensive and midfield lines, which in turn closed off the potential for Chelsea’s backline to advance the ball centrally.

As a result, by the second half, the box dropped deeper, and players ended up receiving possession far deeper than where Maresca intends.

Moves and Countermoves

Should Tottenham manage to do something similar this weekend when they settle into their 4-4-2 out of possession, then they are likely to force Chelsea into giving possession away and leaving themselves vulnerable.

Chelsea’s in-possession shape is particularly vulnerable to counterattacking balls into wide areas, which just so happens to be one of Spurs’ key strengths.

Both Djed Spence and Pedro Porro are consistently given the freedom to take up high positions when Spurs recover possession (see below). If Chelsea give the ball away, they will likely have to defend overloads on each wing before they can get into a settled defensive structure.

Closing Thoughts

Chelsea have won each of their last four meetings with Spurs, and it’s over two months since Frank’s men claimed a home league victory, but Saturday presents a chance for the Dane to deliver a result which would earn him the respect of many in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s a game suited to his team’s strengths, and with him expected to name an unchanged eleven from the team that beat Everton last weekend, it could be a perfect storm for Spurs to earn a result at home.

Yet Maresca will be all too aware of that. Chelsea always offer something near their best against Tottenham, and after stumbling at home to Sunderland last weekend, the Blues will be eager to right some recent wrongs.

As a result, the two teams will go toe-to-toe this weekend, and both have plenty to prove. Expect drama, intensity, and little to separate them come full-time on Saturday.

Score Prediction: 2-2

Paid subscribers can read our Liverpool vs Aston Villa and Man City vs Bournemouth previews. 👇