Newcastle vs Man City and Arsenal vs Spurs: The Narrative.

Predicted Line Ups, Tactical Talking Points And Predictions.

Our GW12 tactical previews are for:

• Newcastle vs Man City

•⁠ Arsenal vs Spurs

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from Arsenal fan @JamesB_afc who predicts how the Gunners will handle their injury issues in the NLD. 🗣️📱

Newcastle vs Man City

How Could They Line Up?

Newcastle are coming into this game with some hot and cold form, having won their last two cup competition games against Tottenham (EFL Cup) and Athletic Bilbao (Champions League). However, Eddie Howe’s side have lost their last two Premier League fixtures, with consecutive 3-1 losses to West Ham and Brentford.

On the other hand, Manchester City are coming into this game picking up some lovely momentum in all competitions, having won four of their last four, only losing once since their 2-1 loss against Brighton back in August. Pep Guardiola’s side sit just four points behind Arsenal at the top of the table now, and will be looking to apply the pressure with a win against Newcastle this weekend.

The only known injuries for Manchester City heading into this game are Mateo Kovacic and Rodri, but the latter could be available after the international break, currently being assessed ahead of Saturday’s fixture.

For Newcastle, there are a few more injury worries, as Yoane Wissa, William Osula and Valentino Livramento are all out, whilst the likes of Anthony Gordon, Joelinton and Nick Pope are all being assessed. Dan Burn will also miss the match due to his red card against Brentford.

Manchester City’s Clusters & Pods

A new detail we have seen becoming prominent in Guardiola’s City side this season is how he utilises and forms these central clusters to overload the middle of the pitch. Over the years, we have become accustomed to Guardiola’s positional style of play, often setting up in a 3-2-5 in order to have numerical superiority across the pitch and control the game.

However, what we are seeing this season is a new variation of positional principles, with license for more induced chaos in central areas.

The basic shape Guardiola’s men are taking up includes both fullbacks stretching the pitch horizontally to offer width, whilst Erling Haaland is responsible for pinning the opposition central defenders and stretching the pitch vertically with his presence and off ball movement.

This allows for the wingers to come narrow, linking with the midfield three which has seen the likes of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva thriving in recent weeks, due to their ability to occupy all heights and depth in midfield.

The main difference within these central clusters being formed by Manchester City are the intention within them, as the likes of Jeremy Doku, Foden, Silva and Rayan Cherki (or whomever finds themselves in these roles) are encouraged to combine with each other in close proximity.

Where the reference used to be space, City are now looking to ignite these connections between the players themselves, leading to beautiful intricate patterns of play.

The positioning of Manchester City’s wingers and fullbacks make it difficult for the opposition fullbacks who are often caught with dual marking responsibilities. This was seen against Liverpool as both Conor Bradley and Andy Robertson struggled to apply pressure when City’s wingers received the ball between the lines, due to the positioning of the fullbacks.

On the other hand, if City worked the ball to their fullback in a slightly deeper position, it would become the responsibility of the opposition fullback to jump out and apply pressure, leaving space in behind for the inside forward (in this case Cherki) to attack in behind.

Newcastle’s 4-5-1 Mid-Block

Howe’s Magpies are one of the better defensive units in the Premier League, and have been for the past few seasons. Newcastle currently have the third-lowest xG conceded with 11.44 and fifth fewest shots conceded with 117 in their 11 games played (10.64 per 90).

They also have the most pressed sequences per game with 13.09, whilst having a 12.0 PPDA (passes per defensive action) which ranks eighth in the division this season. When applying pressure out of their defensive structure, Newcastle do it with intensity and are effective in doing so, utilising their athletic core and generating the third-most high turnovers per 90 (7.18).

But it’s their slightly more passive 4-5-1 midblock which could cause them some issues against this new-look Manchester City side.

When Newcastle disengage from their high press, Howe’s men often retreat into a 4-5-1 shape, forming a line of five in the midfield looking to prevent passes between the lines with compact spacing.

The biggest issue can be seen with the linear positioning of this five, which can leave big gaps between the midfield line and defensive line if the opposition manage to break the lines with a pass through.

This example from the West Ham game shows a similar pattern which could occur against Manchester City, as Jarrod Bowen has taken up a position behind the Newcastle line of five, forcing Burn to follow him infield and therefore leave space for Aaron Wan-Bissaka to run into.

If Newcastle look to come into this game with a similar gameplan utilising their 4-5-1 midblock, I believe Manchester City will be able to pick them apart with their usage of central clusters, so it will be interesting to see if Howe has something different up his sleeve in order to deal with Guardiola’s new ideas.

Woltemade’s Gravity

Newcastle’s best chance in this game revolves around their shiny new toy, Nick Woltemade, who has already scored six goals for the Magpies in his 14 appearances and is coming off the back of back to back starts for his country leading the line.

We often speak about a player’s gravity inside the box, drawing players towards them as they are perceived to be a threat. In fact, probably the player with the most gravity inside the box in the world is on the opposing team, Erling Haaland.

But Woltemade’s gravity is unique, as the 6ft 6 phenom moves like an attacking midfielder, having excellent control in tight spaces and being able to handle the ball in small pockets of space before finding solutions to combine with his teammates.

Woltemade’s gravity is largely felt outside the box, as an opposition centre-back will look to follow him and stop him turning. Due to his frame, the German is able to protect the ball from the defender on his back, often forcing one or even two help defenders to collapse in on him from midfield.

It is here that the German can shine, dragging multiple players into his space before finding his way out, now opening space for the wingers and midfielders to run into and benefit from Woltemade’s gravitational pull.

This should be a clear point of focus for Newcastle against City, looking to exploit those spaces with runs from midfield, especially given their athletic prowess in the middle of the park.

Prediction – 0-2.

Paid subscribers can read our Arsenal vs Spurs preview. 👇