Man Utd vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Villa & Palace vs Spurs. The Narrative.

Tactical Previews & Predictions.

Our GW18 tactical previews are for:

•⁠ Man United vs Newcastle

• Chelsea vs Aston Villa

• Crystal Palace vs Spurs

Man United vs Newcastle

Boxing Day Blues For United Fans?

Despite an uptick in performances for both Manchester United and Newcastle United in recent weeks, Boxing Day’s sole fixture looks in many ways unlikely to have Christmas dinner-laden fans running around their living rooms.

The Magpies have won just one away fixture since October and have earned just six points on the road all season, while the supposed Theatre of Dreams has fallen short of the fortress it once was, as Ruben Amorim’s men are three games (against ten-man Everton, West Ham and Bournemouth) without a win in front of their home crowd.

If ever a game were to somehow end with both teams losing, it might be this one.

Equally, there is reason for optimism within both camps, as the Red Devils’ positive showing against Bournemouth last Monday was undone only by the Cherries dramatically overperforming their expected goals (their four goals came from shots worth just 0.77 xG).

Eddie Howe, meanwhile, seems to have righted the black and white ship with an impressive run of form since the November international break; defeat in the Wear-Tyne derby aside.

As such, both managers will view this game as a chance to swing the narrative in their favour – and we could be in for a fascinating encounter as a result.

Amorim’s Adaptability

Amorim’s apparent shift towards tactical flexibility might be one of the biggest shocks of the Premier League season so far. While he showed signs of pragmatism at times last season, United tweaking their approach to disrupt their opponents has become a familiar pattern in recent weeks.

Their 3-4-3 has become increasingly fluid. In their visit to Anfield, Luke Shaw was used as something of a hybrid between a left centre-back and Alexander Isak’s personal bodyguard. Shaw followed Isak when the Swede dropped into midfield and made it difficult for Liverpool to get the ball to their £100+ million forward.

Against Bournemouth last Monday, Lenny Yoro (number 15) shifted between right centre-back and right-back to allow Amad Diallo to play as a conventional right winger for most of the evening.

But there was another tweak in this game, which continued against Aston Villa on Sunday. This could be crucial if the Red Devils are to give their home fans a festive treat on Friday.

Mason Mount has quickly become one of the key figures in Amorim’s setup. Adopting one of the number ten slots as his own, the Englishman is able to support the otherwise overloaded United midfield by dropping in when he sees fit, but is also attack-minded enough to find space between the lines and make driving runs towards goal.

Below, Mount has dropped into midfield to offer Lisandro Martinez an outlet, and the Englishman has space to turn into and run towards goal.

With United set to be without Bruno Fernandes in midfield to face one of the league’s most dominant and physically imposing midfields this week, the Englishman’s performance on the day could decide the outcome of the game.

In addition to this, we could see both Casemiro and Manuel Ugarte starting in midfield – neither of whom offer an inspiring range of forward passing. Lisandro Martinez impressed with his progression against Villa, but Amorim starting the Argentine in midfield would be a surprise.

Instead, we could see a call up for Kobbie Mainoo, if Amorim is confident in Casemiro’s ability to operate as a single pivot in a 3-1-6. But given Newcastle’s strength in midfield, a more conservative double pivot and 3-2-5 feels more likely to ensure they’re not too overrun.

Despite struggling for consistency and a good run of results, United’s grasp of the 3-4-3’s intricacies seems to be improving week-on-week.

Howe’s Evolution

If you close your eyes, Newcastle’s out of possession structure at the start of the season is easy to picture. A very flat, passive 4-5-1 midblock which could condense spaces and seek to dominate teams who played their forward passes centrally.

But after a shaky few games and a trend of conceding lots of chances between the lines while creating very few, Howe has been forced to change his general approach.

In the first half against Chelsea last weekend, the Magpies tried to employ a player-to-player press all over the pitch. They left their defenders exposed one vs one in the hope that their midfield overload would strangle the Blues into giving away high turnovers. The image below is the turnover leading up to Nick Woltemade’s opening goal.

This aggressive approach worked well in front of the St James’ Park crowd, but given Newcastle’s poor away form it’s hard to see Howe engaging the same tactic at Old Trafford.

But Everton’s 1-0 win over United with ten men showed teams that you don’t need to go entirely player-to-player to overwhelm the Red Devils.

The Toffees were very selective in the areas they chose to press Amorim’s side hard, and the points where they sat deep. Given the absence of Bryan Mbeumo and Diallo due to AFCON, and Fernandes’ injury, Newcastle are well positioned to repeat this process.

Tonali and Jacob Ramsey will likely prioritise limiting United’s access to Mount when the Magpies are out of possession, while Lewis Miley and Malick Thiaw will double up on Matheus Cunha, with Jacob Murphy playing a hybrid role between Cunha and Patrick Dorgu.

Given the lack of threat of Benjamin Sesko (note that the number 30 being dimmed in the average positions above was due to a lack of involvement), and Diogo Dalot, a player-to-player approach to these two will likely suffice.

Newcastle will also back themselves to dismantle Amorim’s 3-4-3 on a few occasions, and with Woltemade in goalscoring form, they might not need to create much for their German forward to find the net.

Closing Thoughts

Given the Magpies’ lack of away form, and United’s ongoing pursuit of a home win, it’s difficult to see that this year’s Boxing Day game will be a Christmas classic. Fraught with absentees and threatened by a Newcastle team which could find form at any moment, Amorim will likely set his side up to be defensively solid, with a dependence on a moment of quality from Mount or Cunha to bail his side out of trouble.

Howe is fighting demons of his own with an away run which seems to continually reach new lows - but the Red Devils are there for the taking. After a week’s preparation, both teams will have had time to work on the intricacies of their upcoming opposition, and given Howe’s superior record, it seems fitting that the Englishman emerges victorious from this battle.

Prediction - 1-2

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Goals Aplenty At Stamford Bridge

After Aston Villa had scored just one goal in their opening five league games this campaign, any suggestion that Unai Emery’s side would be above Chelsea and just three points adrift the top of the Premier League table after 17 games would have been laughed out of the room.

And while Opta have Villa sat 16^th in their expected points table, which suggests a dramatic overachievement in their results relative to their performances, their current run of ten consecutive victories has seen them produce more expected goals than their opponents on seven occasions. Their showing against Manchester United last weekend showed no signs of them slowing down.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have seemingly blinked since their 3-0 thrashing of Barcelona at Stamford Bridge in November. Since the start of December, they have won just two of their six games.

The Blues have made a habit of getting cold feet around the festive period: suffering back-to-back defeats against Fulham and Ipswich last December and losing four of their eight league games the year before.

But if Enzo Maresca’s men are to keep themselves within reasonable reach of the Premier League title, a win against Villa on Saturday could set the tone for a strong start to 2026.

The Blues That Bend But Don’t Break

While not on an impressive run of results, there is plenty of scope for optimism for Chelsea fans. Cole Palmer has just returned from injury, Moises Caicedo has returned from his three-game suspension, and Reece James is arguably playing his best football ever in the heart of the Blues’ midfield.

Each of those factors were central to the way that Chelsea fought back against Newcastle last weekend. Initially starting with Malo Gusto at right-back and James and Caicedo in midfield, Maresca’s side struggled to penetrate Newcastle’s midblock in the first half.

A moment of quality from James and Palmer then unlocked the Magpies’ defence early in the second half.

James dropped into the backline and punched a line-breaking pass into Palmer, who had space to turn and draw a foul while driving towards goal.

Caicedo’s press-proof profile in midfield then allowed Enzo Fernandez to replace Gusto, meaning that James became the right-back when Chelsea were out of possession, and Fernandez could take up advanced positions between the lines – but the Argentine’s additional creativity compared to Gusto meant that Chelsea suddenly looked more of a threat.

It’s these rotations that could give the Blues the edge over Villa this weekend. While Emery’s side are reliably rigid out of possession, Chelsea’s ability to overload the central areas between the lines while pinning the opposition fullbacks with their wingers remaining wide can prove tricky to deal with for many defences.

Villa’s Defensive Plan

Emery will of course, be aware of Maresca’s aim of creating central overloads, and look to prepare his side accordingly.

Villa look to employ a 4-4-2 out of possession and did so to great effect against Manchester United last weekend.

Villa were content to allow the United back three and Manuel Ugarte to have possession and condensed the spaces between their defensive and midfield line owing to the Red Devils’ limited range of passing.

Ollie Watkins focused on applying pressure to Luke Shaw, and Youri Tielemans ensured that Ugarte couldn’t settle into the game by man-marking him for much of the afternoon.

United were insistent on having a two-player advantage at the back, which meant that Villa outnumbered Ruben Amorim’s side in the middle third. Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes were frequently marked out of the game by two players, leaving United with very little penetration in their ball progression.

This weekend, Chelsea will undoubtedly pose a greater threat to this approach. Villa’s high line can leave them vulnerable to balls in behind, but dropping deep can allow space between the lines.

The Blues have the personnel and structure to exploit just this: wingers who can make direct runs, midfielders who love to pick up possession in pockets of space, and Joao Pedro up front who can do both.

The silver lining for Villa is that unlike United, Chelsea will only leave a one-player advantage in their backline, so a well-coordinated press in the right moments could limit how effectively players such as James or Caicedo are able to operate.

Villa Running Hot

While Villa’s winning run is in part down to their defensive discipline, it is largely the result of how they have managed to score 24 goals in their last 10 games (they have conceded 10 during this time).

Having recognised that his side needed a change of approach after their early struggles, Emery has quickly evolved his side into being one whose attacking patterns are hard to predict.

In many ways, they have become responsive. Commit too many players up the pitch? Villa are able to go long. Try and sit in a midblock? They have creative players who can exploit space in behind. Put ten men behind the ball? They have the attacking talent to score from range.

And that’s exactly what has seen them find such success. For so long, Villa’s attacking approach was based around creating high-quality chances from close range. Teams learned this and started to sit deep as a result, which they struggled to break down. But the manner in which they’ve bounced back has been exceptional.

It helps that the Villa forwards, particularly Morgan Rogers, have found their shooting boots at the right time.

Closing Thoughts

This game is a tough one to call, but it should be a great watch. Many of Chelsea’s biggest strengths are positioned well to exploit Villa’s weaknesses, but there doesn’t seem to be any stopping Emery’s men at the moment – and you can never bet against the Spaniard.

Chelsea’s home record has remained impressive despite their recent wobble, and they have lost just twice at Stamford Bridge in all competitions so far this season. The Blues should benefit from their support, which will perhaps give them an edge in terms of controlling possession. But given Villa’s current proclivity for goals, they can’t be discounted.

Prediction - 3-2

Crystal Palace vs Spurs

In this winter stretch of the season, both teams have stalled slightly.

The intensity of games, coming thick and fast, combined with frequent trips around Europe, seems to be taking a toll on Palace and Spurs.

For Palace, if you haven’t heard Glasner mention it for at least six months already, they simply don’t have the squad to compete on all these fronts. This prophecy has come true, evident in recent injuries and AFCON absences. They’ve lost Sarr, Muñoz, Kamada (and, on Tuesday, Richards), and now look a shadow of their former selves.

For Spurs, much like Palace, their optimistic start to the season has been curbed. They now look discontent and uncertain, not totally established or self-assured when it comes to the kind of football they play – or want to play.

Fortunately! – this weekend after Christmas presents an ideal opportunity. With both teams weakened and wilting in this busy festive season, this could be the game that brings a little Christmas joy to football fans who might need it.

Head-To-Head

The head-to-head is fairly even: Crystal Palace have won two; Spurs have won three. However, of these two that Crystal Palace have won, they’ve been the last two match-ups with Spurs.

Form

Similarly to the head-to-head, the form is also quite even, though Spurs come in slightly stronger.

Crystal Palace Form

In the last five games, Palace have won one, and lost and drawn two. They’ll be hoping to overturn this poor record.

Tottenham Hotspur Form

In the last five games, Spurs have won two, drawn one, and lost two; they’ve also lost the past two games they’ve played.

Crystal Palace Line-up

On paper, I predict the formation will look like this:

​​I predict Palace will play nearly the same team as against Leeds. In their last game against Arsenal, they lost Richards, who looks unlikely to be available this weekend. I expect Canvot to come in for him – though it could be Lerma. Outside of this, no changes.

Tottenham Hotspur Line-up

On paper, I predict the formation will look like this:

After losing Romero and Simons to red cards against Liverpool, I think Richarlison and Danso will replace them. Richarlison will play, as he has done in the past, on the left wing but float inside – allowing Bergvall and Spence to cover the flank.

Apart from these changes, the team will remain the same.

Tactical Talking Points

The impact of Crystal Palace’s absences shouldn’t be overlooked.

To emphasise this, have a look at this graph:

Evident here, we can see that Wharton and Kamada, the favoured double pivot, compliment each other. Wharton excels at duels, progressive passes, and key passes. Alternatively, Kamada is especially gifted at winning possession and carrying the ball.

Hughes, unfortunately, has a more similar profile to Wharton; therefore, the balance Kamada provides, when he isn’t available, really offsets the cohesivity in midfield. He’s the midfielder who breaks the play up and progressively carries the ball.

Furthermore, Munoz is one of the creative sparks for Palace. Without him and, respectfully, the drop-off from him to Clyne, Crystal Palace are far more impotent. In this fixture last season, Munoz was instrumental in the goals.

Despite this (and in spite of their poor form), Palace are the favourites.

So how would Spurs be able to get something out of this game?

Frank is quite a reactive manager—often changing tactics or style of play depending on the opponent and their vulnerabilities.

What, then, could he exploit against Palace?

Palace have a set-piece weakness. 11 of the 19 goals conceded in the Premier League have come from set pieces. Of the four goals conceded against Leeds: two came from long throws, one from a freekick, and one from a corner.

I think Richarlison will play a key role in attacking this weakness. As an intuitive striker who often finds himself in the right place in the box, if Frank looks to exploit Palace through set pieces and repeatedly hit the box, having a player who can fortuitously strike amid the chaos is essential.

We saw this against Liverpool. Liverpool, all season, have really struggled winning first and second balls.

From the corner, Spurs won the first header.

Chaos ensues. In which, Richarlison manages to get the ball and place it into the corner:

When Spurs created more chaos—playing more directly, flinging the ball into the box, and committing to the second ball – they were on top.

Palace have a similar weakness:

Palace have lost the second-most aerial duels in the league.

This weakness was evident against Leeds. In competitive aerial situations, where either player could win the ball, Palace players often failed to get to both the first and second ball.

In this example, Leeds get to the ball first, managing to flick it on:

Calvert-Lewin, then, wins the second ball and heads it home:

Spurs must take advantage of this aerial defensive frailty and be combative and determined if they wish to get something from this game.

In a fixture shaped more by caution than conviction, neither side looks well placed to truly take control. All in all, I expect this to be a cagey game. Both teams will desperately not want to lose – and this will be reflected in the score.

Prediction - 1–1