Man Utd v Brighton and Aston Villa v Man City: The Narrative

Tactical Previews For This Weekend's Big Games.

Our GW8 tactical previews are for:

•⁠ Manchester United v Brighton

• Aston Villa v Manchester City

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Manchester United v Brighton

Manchester United’s victory at Anfield caused a fallout so seismic that the public discourse around the two clubs seemed to flip on the outcome of one Harry Maguire header. Suddenly, Liverpool are in crisis and Ruben Amorim’s Red Devils - hot off their first back-to-back league wins under his tenure - have turned a corner and have started to develop confidence.

Confidence is one thing, but anyone who watched last Sunday’s clash will have noted that United’s win stemmed from accepting their inferior quality and preying on Liverpool’s vulnerabilities in the right moments rather than a dominant performance. But with Old Trafford welcoming Brighton & Hove Albion at 5:30 on Saturday, Amorim’s side will be the one expected to set the tempo and control the game. And that, to many United fans, is a scary proposition.

Brighton, meanwhile, sit one point behind United after eight league games, are unbeaten in their last four, and have conquered Manchester City and Chelsea so far this season. Fabian Hurzeler’s men are riding high despite ongoing trouble with injuries. As such, the Seagulls are poised to land a killer blow against United fans’ growing optimism.

Pressing Issues

It feels harsh to criticise the Red Devils after their first win at Anfield in almost a decade, especially considering the endless turmoil United fans have endured in recent years, but if there is one facet of their game that was undeniably poor against Liverpool, it was their press. United didn’t engage a high press much, but when they did, it was remarkably poor.

In the image above, United somehow manage to have three players within five yards of Dominic Szoboszlai on the ball, but don’t move to close him down or to cover off his passing lane into Mohamed Salah. Not only does this leave Mason Mount (enlarged) utterly dumbfounded by the lack of coordination, but it also allows Liverpool to play one line-breaking pass and have plenty of space to run at the United defence in a three vs three situation.

This was the outcome pretty much every time United looked to engage a high press. Perhaps because of this, Amorim shifted to a more zonal approach out of possession, and while that limited how exposed the defence was, it also caused its own issues.

United’s 3-4-3 invites pressure by nature, as having an extra centre-back requires losing a player in the middle of the park. This allows for more cover in the last line of defence but also limits how effectively pressure can be applied to the ball.

This is the case in the image above, as United are sat in a 5-2-3 shape out of possession. With the forward line bypassed, it leaves just two midfielders to cover the passing lanes for potential through balls in the gaps between the back five. The issue is exacerbated in this situation as United aren’t playing a high line (which would limit the opponent’s space and time on the ball) or a low block (which would limit the space in behind the United defence). They are caught out in no-man’s land opening the door for Ibrahima Konate to play a line-breaking pass to Alexander Isak in behind.

The Soaring Seagulls

And if there is one team whose attacking modus operandi is line-breaking passes, it is Brighton.

Progressive passes were the source of both of Brighton’s goals against Newcastle last weekend. Above, see how Jan Paul van Hecke fires a pass into Georginio Rutter through the heart of the Magpies’ midfield. Below, see Yasin Ayari doing the same, this time finding Mats Wieffer.

Brighton’s Progressive Passes per 90

- Jan Paul van Hecke 6.79 (top 3%)

- Lewis Dunk 4.72 (top 19%)

- Joel Veltman 4.85 (top 17%)

(Data from FBRef. Percentiles given in relation to positional peers in Europe’s top five leagues.)

Given United’s previous difficulties defending the space between their midfield and defensive lines, it seems likely that Brighton will target these areas with extra impetus this weekend.

To combat this, Amorim may choose to stick with Mason Mount in his front three over Benjamin Sesko, as the Englishman is undoubtedly the Portuguese’ best presser.

But that’s not the only threat that Brighton pose to United.

Last weekend, Senne Lammens went exclusively long to bypass the Liverpool press. And it worked: United not only won the game, but they didn’t play themselves into unnecessary trouble.

This gives the Red Devils’ boss a dilemma between reverting to trying to play out from the back as they have done previously, or sticking with this lower-risk means of build-up. Hurzeler’s Brighton are exceptional in a high press and will commit every player to it if the situation is right. See below how van Hecke has charged out of position to pressure Joelinton into playing a pass straight to Danny Welbeck.

One thing that might change though, is that Amorim might start Maguire as his central centre-back, the player who pushes into play a pivot role when United’s defence have possession.

This is the most important position of Amorim’s build-up play, as the player is relied upon to receive the ball under pressure while also playing on a line by himself (so often being isolated). As such, it’s vital that whoever plays this position is confident in possession.

In the past, it has often been Matthijs de Ligt who has adopted this role, but the Dutchman has looked highly uncomfortable. Maguire has more of a track record with this style of play, so if Amorim decides to stick with the team that beat Liverpool, it gives his team an improved chance of bypassing Brighton’s player-to-player press.

Diallo and Mbeumo To Be Key

Should they be able to build reliably, they are likely to focus their attacks down their right-hand side, just as they did against Liverpool. With Amad Diallo likely to start at wing-back and Bryan Mbeumo as the half-winger, the United right poses much more threat than Diogo Dalot and Mount on the left.

This tactic worked well against Liverpool as Milos Kerkez was the player responsible for closing Diallo whenever he got possession. This often resulted in the Liverpool defence being lopsided, with Virgil Van Dijk forced to follow Mbeumo out wide.

Hurzeler will anticipate this, and assign Ayari and Kaoru Mitoma (who is expected to be back from injury) to mark Diallo, providing cover for Ferdi Kadioglu in the process.

Closing Thoughts

Both teams head into Saturday knowing that a win will likely see them finish the weekend in the European spots. It has potential to be a fiercely contested battle decided by how each manager overcomes the other’s plans.

Brighton are capable of posing a serious threat to United, especially if Amorim looks to return to a more possession-heavy style of play, but the Red Devils’ momentum is undeniable. Expect goals.

Score Prediction: 2-2

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