Man United vs Burnley and Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Narrative.

Chelsea vs Fulham, Brighton vs Man City and Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace also previewed.

It’s only GW3 and The Narrative is already palpable in the Premier League. This week we’re analysing:

•⁠ Chelsea vs Fulham

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Burnley

•⁠ ⁠Brighton vs Man City

•⁠ ⁠Liverpool vs Arsenal

• Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from Alex Moneypenny who is hoping to see Arsenal’s first win at Anfield in almost 13 years this weekend. 🗣️📱

Chelsea vs Fulham

It is a testament to Marco Silva and Fulham that their West London derby with Chelsea has become something of a genuine rivalry between the two clubs. It was only in 2023 that the Cottagers ended a seventeen year winless run against the Blues, and last season they went one better, winning at Stamford Bridge for the first time this century.

The two clubs have made steady starts to their league campaigns, and a derby win for either side this weekend would certainly bolster fans’ optimism heading into the season’s first international break.

Chelsea’s Impressive Start

Maresca has spoken extremely positively about both of his side’s league performances so far this season, and for good reason. They were arguably unfortunate not to beat Crystal Palace after creating more and higher quality chances than the Eagles, and while West Ham were unquestionably poor last Friday, the Blues were ruthless in making the Hammers pay for their errors.

Yet in between West Ham’s terrible efforts to produce some cohesive defending, a few of Chelsea’s actions were genuinely impressive – and act as a telling sign of how they intend to play when Cole Palmer is unavailable, as is expected to be the case this weekend.

Maresca’s versatile use of his full backs has perhaps been the most talked about structural point of Chelsea’s set up since the italian took over last summer, but against West Ham last week, his use of Marc Cucurella and Malo Gusto was the nail in the coffin for an already struggling Hammers side.

Between their usual roles inverting into the Blues’ box midfield, both of Maresca’s full backs also were also available as genuine wide options from time to time.

Whenever Chelsea entered the final third, the pair were seemingly given the freedom to choose to move inside (as they normally do), or drift out wide to create space for the wingers to move into central areas.

In the absence of Palmer, these outside movements allow Chelsea’s most creative players – particularly Brazilian teenager Estevao – to enter dangerous areas more frequently.

This was the case for Chelsea’s third goal at the London Stadium. Gusto drfted out wide to allow Estevao to make a driving run inside. The Frenchman played the ball into Liam Delap, who utilised his physical profile to act as a backboard to present Estevao an opening to drive into.

This flexibility in structure proved able to mitigate the potential creative problems Chelsea could have had without their usual talisman.

It also allowed them to continue a plan that had clearly been the case against Crystal Palace on the opening weekend: creating opportunities for cutbacks.

Maresca has directed his players to target the half spaces within the opposition box as priority number one. Time after time against both Palace and West Ham, the Blues have looked to create chances through these areas. And for good reason.

Anyone who was lucky enough to watch Manchester City reach 100 points in 2017/18 will be able to recall dozens of this type of goal, and it is the result of targeting these spaces that City were able to so consistently produce high quality chances. Maresca, a true disciple of Pep Guardiola, seems to have taken yet another page out of the Spaniard’s book.

It is worth saying that while this did work against West Ham – in between scoring from what felt like every corner – it didn’t produce a goal against Palace. And with Fulham certain to be resolute in their 4-4-2 midblock, it will likely take patience and persistence from Chelsea if they are to find a way past the Cottagers.

Can Fulham Pose A Threat?

Fulham meanwhile, have plenty to be positive about despite being yet to win a game. Two comeback goals from substitutes has demosntrated their strength in depth despite their inactivity in the transfer market, and having dismantled the Blues at Stamford Bridge last season, they will be optmistic about doing the same again this weekend.

Key to their potential success will be Antonee Robinson, who was instrumental in their equaliser against Manchester United last weekend.

As seen below, Robinson makes an inside run while Alex Iwobi holds possession on the left wing. In doing so, the American draws Lenny Yoro, Manuel Ugarte and even Mathias de Ligt away from goal, allowing Emile Smith Rowe to drift into the vacated space and finish.

It should go without saying that Chelsea’s defence will be more difficult to break down than United’s, but with Fulham’s range of attacking options being backed up by a resolute midfield and defence, there is no reason to discount them from producing another upset at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Man United vs Burnley

Now this could be an interesting game. Both fanbase’s moods have dramatically switched from preseason to game week 3. Burnley fans are optimistic after a great result last against fellow promoted side Sunderland after previously holding low expectations post promotion. However, Amorim’s united isn’t being received well, especially after a poor Fulham performance, a terrible night away at Grimsby and the treatment of Kobbie Mainoo. I’d even suggest that this could be the Portuguese’s final game as manager.

How Will They Line Up?

The only expected change in my opinion would be the introduction of France u21 winger, Loum Tchaouna. After exciting of the bench and playing a crucial role in Burnley’s second goal last weekend against Sunderland, he should replace an underwhelming Jacob Bruun Larsen.

Pass, Pass, Pass, GO!

Burnley have found success by balancing their previously utilised heavy possession-based style of play with a new focus on transitions. Ultimately, the back four and double pivot look to retain the ball short, enticing the opposition onto them before releasing the ball wide for their wide players to receive in isolation and carry them on transition. This was heavily used against Sunderland especially their second goal, where Tchaouna was able to receive the ball behind Sunderland’s press into space to carry into. This style of play is able to be implemented due to the recruitment of Ugochukwu, which in my opinion is a fantastic piece of business. The Frenchman is exactly what a bottom half premier league side needs in midfield, I’m surprised he didn’t make a move slightly higher up the food chain. His ability to break up play, carry and retain possession is crucial to Burnley’s style of play.

Their style of play is furthered by their strength’s out wide. Jaidon Anthony, for me, is one of the most underrated players in the league. A combination of his ability to carry the ball over distance, 1v1 threat and decent output exemplifies this Burnley side. His as a n individual and Parker’s Burnley as a whole’s skillset was demonstrated by their late goal last weekend to make it 2-0.

Get At Them

I believe Burnley will rock up to Old Trafford on Saturday with a smell of blood. I expect their out of possession shape to reflect this. So far this season, when out of possession, Burnley have shifted to a back five with the ball side winger tucking deeper and shuffling the back four across to maintain stability and full pitch defensive coverage.

This suits playing against Amorim’s 343 system implementing a man-to-man system, as shown above, could lead to a low in confidence United side to struggle. In midfield pushing Cullen and Ugochukwu high onto their opponents double pivot attempting to suffocate them. Combing this with Anthony and Mejbri allowing the wide centre half’s to possess the ball but cutting central passes into the midfield off forces the ball wide into United’s wing backs. Similarly to how Burnley defended against Spurs and Sunderland they sat narrow forcing the opposition wide and invited crosses into the box. This of course comes with its risks, however the ability that both Esteve and Ekdal possess in the air should minimise this risk.

Who Will Play?

After a particularly poor start, post a decent performance against Arsenal, I’m expecting a few changes. I believe Bayindir will come back into goal, not ideal, but a change that’s necessary post Grimsby. The midfield hasn’t worked, and I believe Amorim will face internal pressure to adapt slightly and bring in Mainoo and push Bruno higher. Leading to Cunha up front.

Get Bruno The Ball

Central progression just hasn’t been a possibility at United over the last year. With the expected press in midfield from Burnley, they’d be better suited to just ignoring this, as you can see below due to Burnley’s wide players blocking the central areas a pass from the outside centre halves into the wingbacks is the simplest form of progression. When playing with the ball against man-to-man pressure, movement is crucial.

As the graphic above displays, Bruno dropping in to receive and dragging his marker higher up the pitch can create space for vertical runs from Cunha. In order for this to work, Mainoo and Casemiro must drop deep and bring Burnley’s midfield onto them to create the space. It also necessitates successful combination’s between the wing backs and the ‘10s’ to pull their opponents out of position. United have attempted this style of play before and have often been successful, however due to the fixture being at home and pressure already mounting playing such a vertical style of play may not sit well with the fanbase or themselves, however in a fixture so dependent on result they cannot afford to play into Burnley’s hands and shouldn’t attempt to dominate the ball through central sequences of play.

Repeated Mistakes

Everyone and their dog knows that United’s out of possession shape is easily exploitable. The vacant space left in between the lines of the defence and midfield was encapsulated by Iwobi’s performance last weekend, this was followed by the Nigerian’s post-game interview. Where he said, “We knew that we would be able to get behind their two midfielders, and their three centre-backs immediately jump, so we were able to execute that."

The above graphic implies the space that former United player, Mejbri will find himself in. If this isn’t fixed the Tunisian international will be able to receive the ball and due to a centre back having to jump there will be space for Burnley’s wide players to move into.

So, in order to fix this, without completely changing system, they too can switch to a man-to-man system. As shown below, a more aggressive approach out of possession. With Casemiro dropping deeper into a single pivot within a midfield three of Mainoo and Fernandes provides far more coverage and prevents vacant space. This is slightly risky and places a lot of trust in their wide centre half’s to defend 1v1, however due to Burnley’s defensive full backs they generally won’t be overloaded and Amad and Dorgu can drop back to support.

Finally, I believe this could be a very difficult game for the home side, after a massive set back in the week I struggle to see the players and coaching staff alike being able to motivate themselves into a winning model. However, due to sheer quality in attacjing areas, I expect them to score at least.

Burnley can ensure victory through concentration when man to man and the correct decision making on the break. If they can nail this, then they could easily come away from Old Trafford with three points.

Prediction: 2-2.

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