Liverpool vs Everton, Man United vs Chelsea and Arsenal vs Man City: The Narrative.

Fulham vs Brentford and Sunderland vs Aston Villa also previewed.

It’s GW5 and this week on The Narrative we’re analysing:

•⁠ Liverpool vs Everton

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Chelsea

• Fulham vs Brentford

•⁠ ⁠Sunderland vs Aston Villa

•⁠ Arsenal vs Man City

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from City fan Steven Mcinerney, who is not confident ahead of Sunday’s big game at The Emirates. 🗣️📱

Liverpool vs Everton

Derby Day Upset?

Everton fans would probably be the first to admit that the Merseyside Derby is rarely billed as an evenly matched affair. Yet despite Liverpool, already Premier League champions, spending €355 million more than the Toffees over the summer, the gap between the two feels smaller than it has in previous seasons.

That is first and foremost, a testament to the work of David Moyes, but it is also an indicator that Liverpool are not an unstoppable force. They have chinks in their armour, and Everton may be perfectly equipped to exploit them.

The Slot Machine Strikes Again.

Arne Slot acknowledged that Liverpool were “lucky” to beat Burnley last weekend – and few would argue that Hannibal Mejbri’s late mix up between football and volleyball was part of the Reds’ plan. Yet Mohamed Salah’s 95^th minute strike was his second, and Liverpool’s fourth goal past the 88^th minute so far this season. They just keep finding ways to win.

Turf Moor was something of a fortress and the Clarets defended well, but Liverpool were underwhelming in the quality of their chance creation and how they went about dismantling the Burnley defence.

One key reason for this was a lack of box presence from the Reds – particularly in the first half. This stems from many of Liverpool’s attacking players being keen to play in the same areas: typically the left half-space.

Florian Wirtz made this area of the pitch his own when he was at Bayer Leverkusen, but Hugo Ekitike also has a tendency to drop deep and try to get on the ball in the same space. Add in Milos Kerkez and Cody Gakpo, at least one of whom were constantly occupying this space. Liverpool were left with a lack of central threat, and no one applying direct pressure to Burnley’s defensive line.

This allowed Burnley to remain passive in their defensive shape, never being drawn out of their 5-4-1. Even after some substitutions, the Reds remained risk averse, applying very little pressure on the Clarets’ backline and often leaving Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike and Salah outnumbered or in non-threatening positions.

So how might that apply to the Merseyside Derby? With Everton likely to settle for a small share of possession but also offering explosive counterattacking ability, Slot will have to nail the balance of his side if Liverpool are to give their home crowd a derby day to remember.

Alexander Isak seems unlikely to start having played 58 minutes on Wednesday, but there is every chance he’ll be introduced as a substitute – potentially alongside Ekitike if Slot feels his attack needs an extra body in the box.

Liverpool’s focus down their left side could also be shifted slightly. James Garner, a central midfielder by trade, played at left-back last weekend. The Englishman did a stellar job, but if the Reds were to target Salah and try to isolate him and Garner, there is surely huge potential for the Egyptian king to make the difference in the derby. It would be a switch up from their approach so far this season, but Slot has shown he isn’t opposed to adapting to swing the percentages further in his side’s favour.

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Moyes’ Men Poised To Strike

The blue half of Merseyside was inarguably, unlucky to share the points with Aston Villa last weekend, as David Moyes’ men produced over two xG, had three big chances and were the dominant side on the day.

They successfully limited the space in midfield to prevent Villa’s creative midfielders from having the time to cause damage, with the gaps between their midfield and defensive lines being minimal. Everton’s defensive 4-4-2, has made the Toffees a tricky side to break down so far this season.

But that’s not to say that Moyes’ men will go to Anfield praying for a 0-0 – far from it. Everton have become adept at transitioning quickly into their attacking shape, by finding Iliman Ndiaye or Jack Grealish, their attacking wide players, as soon as possible after winning the ball back.

This was the source of some of Everton’s best chances last weekend. Both wingers are so confident driving in possession that they can cause panic among opponents – as seen by the fact that four Villa players converged on Ndiaye in the image below.

By drawing defenders in, it creates space for Everton’s other attackers to receive the ball. In this scenario, Ndiaye found the on running Idrissa Gueye, who quickly shifted the ball over to Grealish, who was left 1v1 with Matty Cash.

Fast transitions have already hurt Liverpool against Bournemouth this season, as their rest defence was caught out on several occasions. Add into the mix the derby day atmosphere and the fact that Everton will undoubtedly be fired up, and it arguably becomes the game to watch this weekend.

The decisive factor though, will likely be Liverpool’s aforementioned ‘balance.’ If Slot overcommits attacking players to compensate for his side’s lack of spark against Burnley, then it will leave the Reds vulnerable to Ndiaye and Grealish. Alternatively, if he opts for a lower risk approach, then they may struggle to create high-quality chances and leave themselves open to some Everton derby day magic.

Man United vs Chelsea

It’s easy to argue that Manchester United and Chelsea have shared the best non-city related rivalry in English football since the turn of the century. Brewed in the 2000s with Jose Mourinho’s Blues disrupting Sir Alex Ferguson’s dynasty, and continued into the 2010s when Chelsea took over as England’s most successful club for that period.

Since then, both clubs have endured tough times, but only the Blues have been able to consistently bounce back. Now Club World Cup champions, Enzo Maresca’s men have their ambitions set on a league title. The red side of Manchester meanwhile, will be heading to Old Trafford this weekend praying that their beloved United aren’t embarrassed on the big stage two weeks running.

Having said that, recent history between the two is fairly even. Two wins and a draw for each side across their last five meetings – but don’t let that suggest that Saturday evening will be an even contest.

The Reds’ Devils

Ahead of the Manchester derby last week, my piece in The Narrative centred around how Amorim’s men could exploit the weaknesses in the Manchester City press by moving the ball quickly into wide areas with an aim to create overloads – and avoiding the central areas in which their build-up has been underwhelming.

If this was part of United’s plan, to say it was executed poorly would be an understatement. In the image below, Altay Bayindir has just passed the ball to Lenny Yoro, whose closed (arguably negative) body position gives him a choice between Mathias De Ligt and Manuel Ugarte in the central areas, or the option he chooses: returning the ball to his goalkeeper.

Yoro could have opened his body position to enable him to maybe slip a pass into Noussair Mazraoui at right wing-back, but that doesn’t address the issue at its core: United’s build-up relies on players who aren’t comfortable on the ball.

Take the moments leading up to Erling Haaland’s incredible miss: Ugarte plays a stray pass to De Ligt, who panics and fires a ball straight into Jeremy Doku.

The same applies when United reach the final third. In the image below, note that it is Luke Shaw and Manuel Ugarte entrusted to find the line-breaking pass to create a chance. It simply doesn’t seem right.

There is also a significant gap between the lines, meaning any passes would have to be pinpoint – asking far too much of the players in the midfield line.

The Blue-Print

Contrast this to the assured, meticulously planned build-up of Chelsea. They have reliable, press-proof players in the appropriate positions, and Maresca’s 3-box-3 enables them to progress the ball between the lines in consistent patterns.

It essentially means that they always have four players in central areas able to circulate and progress the ball. Compare that to United’s two in midfield, and the potential story of Saturday’s clash between the two starts to write itself.

So Amorim’s choice of De Ligt pushing into midfield in build-up seems to only create problems, and United don’t seem to have the personnel capable of playing in a two-man midfield. In the image above, the United midfield is simply overwhelmed – meanwhile De Ligt, as the third centre-back, acts as a wasted player.

Yet Brentford played a back five and limited the Blues’ chance creation last weekend, so what’s different about Keith Andrews’ approach?

Firstly, the Bees played a 5-4-1 and remained narrow to prevent Chelsea having the space to play in the central final-third areas. They also kept a small gap in between the lines to limit the impact of the two most advanced players in the box midfield.

Would Amorim Change?

Limiting the space for Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Marc Cucurella and Joao Pedro to operate is vital to United’s hopes this weekend. And it’s hard to see how they can do that if Amorim persists with his current structure.

That begs the question of whether the Portuguese would swallow his pride and adapt. United’s squad is better suited to a 4-2-3-1, and the additional body that this would provide could be hugely beneficial against Chelsea.

The Blues will look to progress the ball centrally, before shifting it out wide and try to create space in behind for a cutback. If United switch to a back four, they lose the wasted third centre-back in exchange for an extra midfield body, allowing the wingers to defend wider to accommodate this.

Old Trafford

With pressure mounting on Amorim, this weekend does feel like a major ‘stick or twist’ moment. Chelsea are so reliable with their build-up that it’s difficult not to see a Blues victory, unless the United boss makes a few changes.

Having said that, it’s not necessarily a must-win game for Amorim. Gary Neville highlighted the importance of a “fast start” for the Red Devils in order to get the home crowd behind them, but after the United board publicly proclaimed their support for Amorim, the only expectation for Saturday will be a respectable home performance.

For Maresca’s men, a win will see them take an impressive eleven points from a possible fifteen to start the season – so it would more than make up for the dropped points at Brentford last time out.

As discussed, it’s difficult to imagine a world that United take anything from this game, particularly after their performance last weekend. Amorim may see it as somewhat of a free hit, with many people seemingly writing the home side off. A change in structure, whether that’s to a back four or just tweaking the 3-4-3 to suit his personnel better, would help his chances. Chelsea will head to Old Trafford and look to ride the wave of an upbeat Old Trafford crowd for the first ten minutes and then look to assert themselves as the dominant side. If the Blues achieve that, they will find success on the road.

Fulham vs Brentford

Blunt Bees Take On Quiet Cottagers

Fulham and Brentford are arguably the Premier League’s two most similar clubs. They share more than just west London: similar journeys to the top flight, similar praises for being well-run – and unfortunately for them, similarly underwhelming starts to the season.

Yet Craven Cottage could play host to an exciting encounter this weekend, as both teams have reasons to believe that their campaigns are poised to burst into life.

Fulham Can’t Leave Kevin At Home

Fulham only producing five shots across ninety minutes against Leeds probably says enough about a performance which left most of Craven Cottage asleep by half-time. There was such a lack of tempo, a lack of commitment throughout most of the game that Gabriel Gudmundsson was probably sleepwalking by the time he gifted Marco Silva’s men the win in stoppage time.

The attacking areas were so devoid of creativity that Kevin, Fulham’s new record signing and Brazilian winger, produced more successful crosses than anyone on the pitch, despite only playing fifteen minutes.

The 22-year-old revived the home fans in the closing stages with his trickery and direct play. He drew Leeds defenders towards him and showed his diverse skillset – nearly scoring a screamer after a quick one-two and repeatedly driving towards the box.

He will surely start against Brentford, who despite probably getting a point against Chelsea last weekend, have shown defensive fragility so far this season, particularly when teams can shift the ball forward quickly. Kevin could be key to exploiting that, whether he starts on the left with Alex Iwobi shifting into attacking midfield, or on the right in place of Harry Wilson.

Above, Enzo Fernandez wins the ball back and fires it into Joao Pedro, who turns and plays the ball forward before Brentford can transition into a settled defence.

As a result, there is a huge gap between the Bees’ defensive and midfield lines, allowing for Marc Cucurella to find space on the edge of the box to receive a cutback and shoot. If Fulham’s goalscoring troubles – they have scored just three league goals so far, including an own goal – are to be overcome, this Brentford weakness could be essential.

Bees Finally Find A Buzz

While a lack of creative spark was certainly the more poignant talking point for most of the afternoon, the Cottagers also looked unsure defensively – best demonstrated by how Anton Stach managed to stumble through four Fulham defenders by simply running in a straight line.

While Brentford haven’t been prolific in front of goal so far this season (understandable considering the loss of Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo), they showed promising signs against Chelsea, which they could carry into this weekend.

These signs came after Keith Andrews made the choice to play a 3-5-2 rather than the 4-2-3-1 he had previously explored. Kevin Schade and Igor Thiago operated brilliantly as a forward pairing, both understanding the shared roles that come with playing two strikers.

This was evident for Brentford’s first goal. Thiago drops deep to receive the ball, drawing Trevoh Chalobah out of position in the process. He lays it into the midfield, allowing Jordan Henderson to play a lovely through ball into Schade, who is left 1v1 against Tosin Adarabioyo.

Neither Fulham nor Brentford will be particularly high on confidence, but it feels like Andrews’ men will be the group in higher spirits ahead of the derby – despite Fulham being the team that won last weekend. It will likely be a cagey affair with both teams struggling for attacking rhythm so far this season, but there are reasons to be argued for both teams that their rhythm is just around the corner. As such, we might see some magic.

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