Liverpool vs Bournemouth and Man Utd vs Arsenal: The Narrative.

Newcastle vs Villa and Chelsea vs Palace also previewed.

It's GW1 of the Premier League, this week on The Narrative we'll be diving into:

•⁠ ⁠Liverpool vs Bournemouth: Reds’ Title Defence To Face Testing Start

•⁠ ⁠Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Who Blinks First?

•⁠ ⁠Chelsea vs Crystal Palace: Cucurella The Key?

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Arsenal: Amorim’s Big Decisions

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Liverpool’s Community Shield defeat is unlikely to drain optimism from Anfield. After a summer transfer window most fanbases could only dream of, Arne Slot’s side begin their Premier League title defence at home to Bournemouth on Friday night. With it also being Liverpool’s first league game since the passing of Diogo Jota, it will be an emotional occasion for all involved.

History gives them reason to feel comfortable: 11 wins from the last 12 meetings. But Andoni Iraola’s side earned a reputation last season for making life uncomfortable for more fancied opponents — and will fancy testing a Liverpool back line still bedding in under its new manager.

Defensive Exodus

The Cherries have of course, lost three of their most-used back four from 2024/25, and while there will likely be some teething problems that emerge as a result of this, they have acquired centre-back Bafodé Diakité and left-back Adrien Truffert as potential replacements.

Diakité arrives as an established ball-playing defender, confident in possession while maintaining a 59% duel success rate in Ligue 1 last season.

Diakité Key Stats

• 92.7% Pass Completion (top 8%)

• 63.83 Passes Completed per 90 (top 13%)

• 50.65 Carries per 90 (top 11%)

• 0.22 Challenges Lost per 90 (top 11%)

• 71.6% Aerial Duels Won per 90 (top 6%)

• 4.28 Ball Recoveries per 90 (top 27%)

• 0.65 Tackles Won per 90 (bottom 15%)

• 0.92 Interceptions per 90 (bottom 33%)

Stats from FBRef. Percentiles given compared to positional peers in Europe’s top five leagues over the past year.

As evidenced by above, Diakité’s ability with the ball is almost unquestionable – it’s defensively that he may be exposed.

Due to these defensive frailties, Andoni Iraola may be relying on his side’s largely unchanged attacking unit to exploit some of the question marks that have arisen about the Liverpool backline.

Reds’ Defensive Blues

The result of the Community Shield is never a huge amount to read into – but Crystal Palace’s goals last weekend may have revealed a few potential tactical vulnerabilities of this season’s new-look Slot machine.

As seen below, both Palace goals derived from forwards finding pockets of space between the Liverpool backline. A turnover in midfield allows Jean-Phillipe Mateta to find space to run in behind Virgil Van Dijk and alongside Ibrahima Konate – with the two centre-backs being caught between stepping up and dropping off. It results in the French forward winning a penalty.

For the second goal, former Cherry Milos Kerkez heads the ball into the midfield, causing Alexis MacAllister (circled), who was sitting in as essentially a third centre-back after a defensive transition, to take the view that his side had won the ball, and move back into midfield accordingly.

Yet when another turnover leads to Palace regaining possession, Ismaila Sarr finds himself unmarked, with space to run into and to score accordingly. Couple that with Van Dijk choosing to step up and Konate remaining unmoved, and the Reds’ defence looks a bit of a mess.

Transitions seem to be an area of vulnerability for this iteration of Slot’s Liverpool. And which team had the most shot-ending high turnovers in the 2024/25 Premier League? Bournemouth!

Bournemouth’s hybrid press – forcing the ball into one area of the pitch in the hopes of closing space down quickly – has the potential to cause Liverpool some problems at the back. But that’s without considering the incredible quality the Reds boast at the other end of the pitch.

Star Quality To Shine

But in equal measure, they have some serious firepower of their own which will put the makeshift Cherries’ defence under pressure. Hugo Ekitike’s debut in the Community Shield demonstrated his versatile skillset brilliantly, while Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo exhibited early signs of a blossoming interchange down the left-hand side.

In addition to this, Slot’s side showed multiple times last season that they are more than happy to play over a press – firing long balls into Mohammad Salah or any willing runners.

Now that we’ve mentioned Salah, it’s worth noting that any of Liverpool’s defensive frailties pale in significance compared to the mismatch Bournemouth may face against the Liverpool frontline. Despite not looking the finished article during the Community Shield, it seems likely that the Reds are able to overwhelm the Cherries’ defence time and time again, especially if they are given settled possession.

Iraola may look to combat that truth by committing entirely to the high-energy approach that brought success last season, but should his players even slightly misstep, Liverpool will likely have the ruthless finishers to get their title defence off to a winning start.

Bournemouth’s intensity will create moments where Liverpool’s defensive shape is tested, but Slot’s side have too many ways to hurt opponents for any gaps to go unpunished. If the hosts keep their composure against the press and exploit the space it leaves, they should begin their title defence with three points - and send an early reminder of the quality that made them champions.

Every week, we’ll be asking a fan for their thoughts on a game, and to start the season in style, The Redmen TV’s Ste Hoare shares his views in our first Fan Voice-note. 🗣️📱

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

In a summer transfer window that has felt at times like a relentless player merry-go-round, Newcastle and Aston Villa head into this weekend with only one or two new signings likely to start between them. Combine that truth with both sides’ established styles of play, and the Saturday early kick-off seems in some ways, set to look similar to the last time the two teams met.

Villa dispatched Newcastle 4-1 back in April, and on that occasion, it was the midfield duels which told quite a story.

Midfield Duels Won in Aston Villa vs Newcastle 19/04/25

• Aston Villa 15/24

• Newcastle 12/25

Both teams will likely play a 4-3-3, both sides trust their midfielders to gain control through direct duels. It is these battles: Tielemans against Tonali, Guimaraes against Kamara, which have the power to decide the game. Both the Belgian and Brazilian have the creative prowess to produce moments of magic at the slightest opportunity.

An Isak-Shaped Hole

However, there have been a few key changes to both team’s squads since their last meeting – most notably to Newcastle’s. With Howe making it clear that he feels he “can’t involve” Alexander Isak at Newcastle as things stand, the Magpies’ attack will likely be led by Anthony Gordon this weekend – with Harvey Barnes and new signing Anthony Elanga alongside the Englishman.

Gordon played through the middle just twice last season – which, while a small sample size, gives a good indicator into how he approaches playing as a sole centre forward.

Against Everton, as seen below, Gordon is more than happy to drop deeper in an effort to get involved in Newcastle’s build-up, not in a dissimilar fashion to how Isak would.

It is when the ball goes over to the right-hand side that a key difference emerges. With Gordon having spent most of his career playing on the left-wing, his natural instinct is to try and drift behind defenders, towards the back post when a cross comes in. This differs to Isak, who would likely look to dominate the middle of the box and use his physical profile to beat a defender in the air.

This isn’t a huge problem by any means, but it does raise questions over how ruthless Newcastle can be in front of goal without the physically imposing Isak. And Gordon’s physical profile may not boast the same strength as Isak, but he does possess equal running power.

Against Manchester City last season, he positioned himself well – on the shoulder of a City defender – to make a curved run in behind and receive a through ball while running at nearly full speed. It allows him to get in behind and on this occasion, win a penalty.

With Villa likely to look to control possession, it is this running power – in conjunction with Barnes and particularly Elanga’s explosive pace – that give the Magpies their best chance of breaking down Emery’s resolute defence.

Emery Evolution

In terms of Villa going forward, things look far more settled. Despite losing Marco Ascencio and Marcus Rashford, they remain well equipped in forward areas. Morgan Rogers has returned to training following an injury during preseason, and should he be fit to start, his partnership with Ollie Watkins and Donyell Malen across the front three will be vital to Villa’s hopes at St James’ Park.

The JLA Tactics Board Is Now Available… https://jlatacticsboard.com/

As seen above, Ian Maatsen will be expected to offer Villa’s width down the left-hand side, allowing Rogers and Watkins, as well as Youri Tielemans, to rotate as they look to break down the Newcastle defence. Malen meanwhile, could serve as a great poacher-style forward, drifting in from the right to finish off attacking moves. If Lewis Hall is even slightly less than match fit as he returns from injury, the Dutch forward could find regular opportunities – and even prove to be a matchwinner.

So, despite perhaps lacking the ‘difference makers’ of last season, there are plenty of positives in both teams’ attacking areas which are sure to put their opponent’s defence under pressure. Which makes the fact that both teams have very settled defences – unchanged from last season – a huge relief for both managers.

With both midfields set to scrap for control and both defences largely settled, the margins here will be fine. Villa’s rotations in attack and Newcastle’s pace on the break give each side a clear route to goal - but it’s equally a game that could be decided by a mistake as by a moment of quality.