Arsenal vs Forest and the Manchester Derby: The Narrative.

Bournemouth vs Brighton and Burnley vs Liverpool also previewed.

The Premier League is back and so is The Narrative. For GW4 we’re analysing:

•⁠ Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

•⁠ ⁠Bournemouth vs Brighton

•⁠ ⁠Burnley vs Liverpool

•⁠ Man City vs Man United

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from United fan Double A who has a BOLD prediction for the Derby. 🗣️📱

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Ange Postecoglou will take charge of Nottingham Forest for the first time this Saturday against Arsenal who will be looking to get a win on the board after their 1-0 defeat against Liverpool.

The former Celtic and Spurs manager has been the subject of many questions following Nuno Espirito Santo’s departure, and a win at the Emirates could be exactly what they need to alleviate the early pressure.

How Will They Line-Up?

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Arsenal would be expected to make three changes from their starting eleven at Anfield: Cristhian Mosquera replacing the injured William Saliba, Martin Ødegaard’s return to full fitness and Eberechi Eze’s much needed creativity.

Nottingham Forest will be without Ola Aina through injury this weekend, and with Oleksander Zinchenko unable to play against his parent club, Morato would be expected to come in at left back. Douglas Luiz could be set to come in following Ibrahim Sangare’s poor performance against West Ham, with the away side potentially looking to prove a point following Nuno’s rifts with Global Head of Football, Edu Gaspar.

What Can We Expect From Postecoglou’s Side?

With Evangelos Marinakis’ appointment showing a clear intent to play more attacking, exciting football, moving to the opposite end of the spectrum to Nuno, what should we expect to see on Saturday?

With the Australian showing commitment to playing his risky brand of football while at Spurs, it would be hard to expect anything less from him at Nottingham Forest.

While looking back at his time in North London, we can expect his side to get very high up the pitch, with the wingers getting high and wide, keeping a good attacking structure, and the full backs coming inside.

Both the full backs and the wingers will also be expected to make runs on the outside and the inside causing issues for the opponent’s defence, however, with Morato coming in as a makeshift left back, this could be a lot less intense.

They will be expected to press aggressively and high, looking to win the ball back and immediately committing players forward when they do.

A big concern for a lot of Nottingham Forest fans, will be the risk of the high line, especially when it comes to Nikola Milenkovic, a brilliant box defender who was perfectly suited to Nuno’s system, but could be exposed by his lack of pace in an Postecoglou side, with so much space left behind him.

One thing that is guaranteed with their new manager is excitement, though the risks will be a lot to bare for the players who are used to playing a low defensive line leaving a lot of space to drive into in front of them.

How Can Arsenal Exploit A New-Look Forest?

Mikel Arteta has been accused of the opposite of Postecoglou, avoiding risk too much to the hinderance of the Gunners going forward, so what needs to improve going into this weekend?

Arsenal have the best defence in the league, largely because of their risk averse ways, but they definitely need to create more and show bravery going forward if they want to win the league, with only four teams with lower expected goals from open play this season.

Eberechi Eze’s ability to play between the lines, create chances for his teammates and himself and his ball carrying abilities could be exactly what they need against Forest that could win them the game.

Eze, who managed three goals and one assist in three games against Postecoglou’s Spurs, showcased his abilities when he scored the second goal against Spurs in May of last season, carrying the ball through his own half, playing an outside of the foot pass through to Ismaila Sarr to take the Spurs defence out of the game, then arriving late in the box and getting on the end of the cross to finish excellently.

The Arsenal number ten will be expected to start at the Emirates this weekend, and it looks ever likely that he will be the decider against Forest with what he adds to Arteta’s side, looking far less afraid to take risks than the likes of Ødegaard.

With Postecoglou coming into a side that are used to a very different style of football, against one of the best sides in the league, it is hard to imagine that Nottingham Forest will be able to get a result.

While most football fans will be aware of ‘new manager bounce’, with little time for Postecoglou to implement his exciting brand of football, as well as Arsenal’s desire to get back to winning ways with new star Eze, it looks ever likely that the Gunners will get the job done.

Prediction – 3-0

Bournemouth vs Brighton

Bournemouth and Brighton will both be looking to pick up where they left off following the international break, with both sides coming off impressive wins against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City.

How Will They Line-Up?

Bournemouth are expected to remain unchanged from their impressive win in North London, though Justin Kluivert’s return from injury could cause a dilemma for Andoni Iraola.

Georginio Rutter and Mats Wieffer are expected to come back into the starting eleven following their returns from injury. Brajan Gruda should be rewarded for his late goal with a start and Yasin Ayari could potentially come in for Jack Hinshelwood.

Pressing, Pressing, Pressing

Iraola’s Bournemouth have come to be known for their excellent pressing structure, so how did that help them in beating Spurs?

A high press against Spurs, with a lot of emphasis in cutting Cristian Romero and Pedro Porro out of the game was a masterclass from Bournemouth. This forced Guglielmo Vicario to find Micky Van de Ven, who attempted long balls up to Richarlison. This might have worked for Spurs but Bournemouth’s superior duelling, especially in the first half, meant that they were unsuccessful in getting out.

Evanilson’s goal highlighted how they were able to target Porro, with both Adrien Truffert and Antoine Semenyo to worry about, leaving a huge space for Senesi to play the ball through to the striker who scored with a deflection off Romero.

Bournemouth looked brilliant, managing 10 shots against the North London side in the first half, and were unlucky not to have scored more, while completely limiting their opposition who didn’t make a single attempt at goal in the first 45.

Can Brighton Beat Bournemouth’s Press?

Brighton were happy to allow Man City to camp in their half in their 2-1 win, encouraging them to commit more bodies forward, and leaving bigger gaps between their central defenders. When the opportunity arose after winning the ball back, they would break and make their way to the other end. They matched Man City’s and had higher expected goals (2.30-1.82) despite only having 36% possession.

This still from the game shows nine Man City players in the Brighton half, leaving John Stones on his own in defence. Yankuba Minteh won the ball from Rayan Ait-Nouri following this Rodri pass which led to only three City players backpedalling towards Kaoru Mitoma as he shot forcing James Trafford into the save.

Amongst these counter-attacks that were executed so well, Brighton weren’t afraid to play the long ball which could signal an upper hand over Bournemouth and their path to victory against Tottenham Hotspurs. Gruda’s late winning goal came from a Lewis Dunk long ball.

This poses a dilemma for Iraola who would want to press high like his team usually does, but Fabian Hurzeler’s side has clearly proven their ability on the break, albeit against Man City’s struggling defence.

Who Makes The Difference?

In what will likely be a close affair between two impressive, well coached teams, it may come down to a moment of magic from either team, so who is well equipped to be relied upon come 3pm on Saturday?

With two incredible goals against Liverpool, an assist against Wolves and the winner of his battle against Porro, Semenyo could be the first name on people’s minds for a difference maker in a game like this. With the second most goals and second most shots in the league this season, he has started off very lively.

Gruda has only managed eight starts in the last two seasons, however, what better way to introduce yourself into becoming a first team regular than a late winner against Man City. A strong performance from the young German could be just what he needs to cement a starting place.

It would be hard to ignore David Brooks, looking back to his best this season. Rutter’s return should see him come into the starting eleven, giving him the opportunity to tip the scales.

It would be impossible to ignore the tactical head-to-head as the key factor in this game, however, with both managers more than capable of setting their teams up for victory, it looks likely that the game will come down to who has the better players.

Bournemouth have the edge when it comes to the quality of their players, and this could easily be the deciding factor.

Prediction – 3-1

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