Our GW12 tactical previews are for:

• Newcastle vs Man City

•⁠ Arsenal vs Spurs

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from Arsenal fan @JamesB_afc who predicts how the Gunners will handle their injury issues in the NLD. 🗣️📱

Newcastle vs Man City

How Could They Line Up?

Newcastle are coming into this game with some hot and cold form, having won their last two cup competition games against Tottenham (EFL Cup) and Athletic Bilbao (Champions League). However, Eddie Howe’s side have lost their last two Premier League fixtures, with consecutive 3-1 losses to West Ham and Brentford.

On the other hand, Manchester City are coming into this game picking up some lovely momentum in all competitions, having won four of their last four, only losing once since their 2-1 loss against Brighton back in August. Pep Guardiola’s side sit just four points behind Arsenal at the top of the table now, and will be looking to apply the pressure with a win against Newcastle this weekend.

The only known injuries for Manchester City heading into this game are Mateo Kovacic and Rodri, but the latter could be available after the international break, currently being assessed ahead of Saturday’s fixture.

For Newcastle, there are a few more injury worries, as Yoane Wissa, William Osula and Valentino Livramento are all out, whilst the likes of Anthony Gordon, Joelinton and Nick Pope are all being assessed. Dan Burn will also miss the match due to his red card against Brentford.

Manchester City’s Clusters & Pods

A new detail we have seen becoming prominent in Guardiola’s City side this season is how he utilises and forms these central clusters to overload the middle of the pitch. Over the years, we have become accustomed to Guardiola’s positional style of play, often setting up in a 3-2-5 in order to have numerical superiority across the pitch and control the game.

However, what we are seeing this season is a new variation of positional principles, with license for more induced chaos in central areas.

The basic shape Guardiola’s men are taking up includes both fullbacks stretching the pitch horizontally to offer width, whilst Erling Haaland is responsible for pinning the opposition central defenders and stretching the pitch vertically with his presence and off ball movement.

This allows for the wingers to come narrow, linking with the midfield three which has seen the likes of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva thriving in recent weeks, due to their ability to occupy all heights and depth in midfield.

The main difference within these central clusters being formed by Manchester City are the intention within them, as the likes of Jeremy Doku, Foden, Silva and Rayan Cherki (or whomever finds themselves in these roles) are encouraged to combine with each other in close proximity.

Where the reference used to be space, City are now looking to ignite these connections between the players themselves, leading to beautiful intricate patterns of play.

The positioning of Manchester City’s wingers and fullbacks make it difficult for the opposition fullbacks who are often caught with dual marking responsibilities. This was seen against Liverpool as both Conor Bradley and Andy Robertson struggled to apply pressure when City’s wingers received the ball between the lines, due to the positioning of the fullbacks.

On the other hand, if City worked the ball to their fullback in a slightly deeper position, it would become the responsibility of the opposition fullback to jump out and apply pressure, leaving space in behind for the inside forward (in this case Cherki) to attack in behind.

Newcastle’s 4-5-1 Mid-Block

Howe’s Magpies are one of the better defensive units in the Premier League, and have been for the past few seasons. Newcastle currently have the third-lowest xG conceded with 11.44 and fifth fewest shots conceded with 117 in their 11 games played (10.64 per 90).

They also have the most pressed sequences per game with 13.09, whilst having a 12.0 PPDA (passes per defensive action) which ranks eighth in the division this season. When applying pressure out of their defensive structure, Newcastle do it with intensity and are effective in doing so, utilising their athletic core and generating the third-most high turnovers per 90 (7.18).

But it’s their slightly more passive 4-5-1 midblock which could cause them some issues against this new-look Manchester City side.

When Newcastle disengage from their high press, Howe’s men often retreat into a 4-5-1 shape, forming a line of five in the midfield looking to prevent passes between the lines with compact spacing.

The biggest issue can be seen with the linear positioning of this five, which can leave big gaps between the midfield line and defensive line if the opposition manage to break the lines with a pass through.

This example from the West Ham game shows a similar pattern which could occur against Manchester City, as Jarrod Bowen has taken up a position behind the Newcastle line of five, forcing Burn to follow him infield and therefore leave space for Aaron Wan-Bissaka to run into.

If Newcastle look to come into this game with a similar gameplan utilising their 4-5-1 midblock, I believe Manchester City will be able to pick them apart with their usage of central clusters, so it will be interesting to see if Howe has something different up his sleeve in order to deal with Guardiola’s new ideas.

Woltemade’s Gravity

Newcastle’s best chance in this game revolves around their shiny new toy, Nick Woltemade, who has already scored six goals for the Magpies in his 14 appearances and is coming off the back of back to back starts for his country leading the line.

We often speak about a player’s gravity inside the box, drawing players towards them as they are perceived to be a threat. In fact, probably the player with the most gravity inside the box in the world is on the opposing team, Erling Haaland.

But Woltemade’s gravity is unique, as the 6ft 6 phenom moves like an attacking midfielder, having excellent control in tight spaces and being able to handle the ball in small pockets of space before finding solutions to combine with his teammates.

Woltemade’s gravity is largely felt outside the box, as an opposition centre-back will look to follow him and stop him turning. Due to his frame, the German is able to protect the ball from the defender on his back, often forcing one or even two help defenders to collapse in on him from midfield.

It is here that the German can shine, dragging multiple players into his space before finding his way out, now opening space for the wingers and midfielders to run into and benefit from Woltemade’s gravitational pull.

This should be a clear point of focus for Newcastle against City, looking to exploit those spaces with runs from midfield, especially given their athletic prowess in the middle of the park.

Prediction – 0-2.

Paid subscribers can read our Arsenal vs Spurs preview. 👇

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Our GW11 tactical previews are for:

• Tottenham vs Man United

•⁠ Sunderland vs Arsenal

• Man City vs Liverpool

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from Man City fan Luke who is confident Erling Haaland will have a good day on Sunday. 🗣️📱

Spurs vs Man United

Red Devils To Test Frank’s Tottenham Tenure

Last week’s piece in The Narrative discussed how Chelsea’s visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium presented Thomas Frank a unique opportunity to set up his team to play in transition (like they have done away from home this season) against a team who have struggled managing transitions this season. Instead, Spurs doubled down on their uninspiring home performances and produced just 0.10 xG en route to defeat. Despite thrashing Copenhagen 4-0 in the Champions League midweek, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will no doubt be anxious ahead of this weekend.

In contrast, Ruben Amorim reacted to Manchester United’s poor form earlier in the season by making changes and learning – such as finding his ideal right-side in Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo against Sunderland or placing less emphasis on controlling build-up and more on balancing his midfield. United’s win at Anfield was perhaps the furthest Ruben Amorim will ever waiver from the style of play he so vehemently defends. While Tottenham aren’t quite the force Liverpool can be, a similarly pragmatic approach could suit the Red Devils this weekend.

The question then becomes how far Frank will be willing to part ways with his conservative attempts at controlling home games to increase the chances of a result. He will feel that a strong response is imperative after last week’s disaster, and United, while improved, remain fallible.

To Be Frank

It’s easy to begin questioning the credibility of Tottenham’s new manager after the frustration shown by some fans after last weekend’s defeat to Chelsea. We’re likely a few weeks away from suggestions being made that Frank ‘isn’t cut out’ to manage a club the size of Spurs. But the reality is probably far from that.

Prior to leaving Brentford, Frank was the third longest serving Premier League manager – behind only Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta. Very few clubs can negotiate a first season in the top-flight, avoid the dreaded ‘second-season syndrome’, then sell key players such as David Raya and Ivan Toney and continue to compete. For the same manager to conquer each of these challenges, is almost unheard of in modern football. A longer transition period to a bigger change than the Dane is used to was surely to be expected.

Hosting United is a perfect opportunity for the Dane to disparage any doubts over his credibility to manage at the elite level. Many of the flaws exposed by Chelsea last weekend are unlikely to be punished with the same ruthlessness as the Blues did.

Trusting The Game Plan

Much has been made of how poor Tottenham – and Xavi Simons in particular - were in possession. It’s true – sloppy passes frequently led to the home side giving away the ball – but the bigger issue than individual moments was how badly Tottenham were structured.

The image below shows Pape Sarr having just received the ball after Spurs recover possession. The Senegalese midfielder’s first instinct is to find a forward pass, but he has no options.

The same goes for Simons in the lead up to Chelsea’s goal. The Dutchman receives the ball while three White shirts are all unmoving within five yards of each other, and while Djed Spence is waiting in an advanced position rather than going out wide to offer an option for ball progression. There were simply no cohesive build-up patterns for most of the game.

When Tottenham did occasionally manage to break the first line of Chelsea’s press, they only ever turned themselves back into trouble. Below, Sarr has received the ball facing away from play, with only Pedro Porro (who himself is being covered off) in his vision. Chelsea’s press was well-coordinated throughout the afternoon.

So while Spurs were in many ways, the architects of their own downfall, Maresca’s Blues were equipped to capitalise on any mistakes. That is highly unlikely to be the case this weekend, as United, however rejuvenated their form, remain poor at engaging a press.

As a result, Spurs will be hopeful of establishing settled possession more frequently and finding ball progression more straightforward. Spence and Porro will remain wide with Rodrigo Bentancur and Joao Palhinha in a double pivot. With United unlikely to commit many men forward, they should be able to find their attacking players such as Simons or Mohammed Kudus, in positions where they are more comfortable on the ball.

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Amorim’s Adaptations

To combat this, it’s essential that Amorim understands his side’s weaknesses. In recent weeks, he has combated the overload his midfield often faces by having Luke Shaw jump onto an opposition forward (as shown above) when the ball is in the opponent’s defensive third. By having Shaw backed up by the defensive-thinking Diogo Dalot at left wing-back, United have struck a balance which suits their strengths.

Amorim will expect Spurs to go player-to-player and engage a high press in build-up, and the Portuguese has adapted his side to negotiate this in recent weeks.

United’s build-up has previously been reliant on Bruno Fernandes and Casemiro in a double pivot, but the two have gained additional support from Matheus Cunha dropping into midfield in recent weeks. Below, Cunha drops deep and receives a line-breaking pass, producing a delicate flick for Fernandes who has become a spare man.

If United can break the first line of Spurs’ press, they will be left player-to-player with Diallo and Mbeumo, two fast, direct wingers, with space to run into down the right-wing. Impetus will then be placed on Micky Van de Ven to act as Mbeumo’s marker while also ensuring double cover with Kevin Danso on Benjamin Sesko.

Closing Thoughts

The result of the game hinges on how effective Frank’s men can press. Spurs going player-to-player can certainly yield a result for the Lilywhites, but if United’s recent form has given them confidence to break the press, there will be space for them to exploit in behind.

As a result, both teams could approach the game in a risk averse manner. Spurs will likely press player-to-player but allow United a spare man in favour of having double cover at the back. Amorim’s men, meanwhile, will be cautious of high turnovers in build-up, aware that Tottenham have been poor in creating chances against a settled defence.

It seems set to be a nervy Saturday lunchtime for both sets of fans.

Score Prediction: 1-2

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Our GW10 tactical previews are for:

• Tottenham vs Chelsea

•⁠ Liverpool vs Aston Villa

• Man City vs Bournemouth

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from upcoming Spurs tactics creator Kish Patel of Lilywhite Lab, who is quietly optimistic about Saturday’s London Derby. 🗣️📱

Spurs vs Chelsea

Recent Premier League history would struggle to find a derby quite like Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea. In an era where rivalries have become too often defined by mutual respect, Chelsea and Spurs’ disdain for each other feels nearly irreparable.

Both sets of fans are likely in two minds over how to assess their seasons so far. Tottenham sit third in the Premier League but haven’t won a home league game since they faced Burnley back in August. The Blues, meanwhile, are ninth and were undone by Sunderland last weekend, but have also demonstrated their potential with emphatic wins over Liverpool and Ajax in recent weeks.

Enzo Maresca will be all too aware of his side’s five red cards in their nine previous games, so priority for the Italian should be preparing his young squad not to let the occasion get to them – or at least, not to let the occasion lead to a premature dismissal.

Assuming he can do that, then Saturday night should host a fascinating tactical battle, alongside the fire and ire of a classic grudge match.

Frank’s Fragilities

Spurs’ bipolar form 17^th and 1^st in home and away form respectively - is the biggest indicator of the learning curve that Thomas Frank is embarking on. At home, Spurs have struggled under the weight of expectation. Frank has never managed a club expected to dominate games, and shaping a team to control possession rather than absorb pressure and counterpunch requires a very different skillset.

Their game against Bournemouth was most emblematic of this. After conceding in the fourth minute, Frank’s men spent the afternoon in a losing gamestate but failed to establish any sense of control or consistent chance creation. They produced just 0.19 xG on the day.

Frank’s learning curve also explains Tottenham’s brilliant away form. They conquered Manchester City with a ruthless counterattack and by engaging a high press in moments where the home side were vulnerable. Last weekend, they utilised set-pieces against Everton to establish a winning gamestate early on, and spent the second half absorbing pressure and counterattacking when the opportunity arose – essentially playing exactly how Frank’s Brentford would have done.

These factors suggest that Frank’s skillset seems well-equipped to beat Chelsea, an opponent expected to look to assert themselves even as the away side, despite Spurs’ poor home form. So how might his gameplan play out against the Blues?

Double Pivot Dilemma

Frank’s build-up patterns at Brentford were first and foremost, conservative – an approach he hasn’t departed from in his first few months at Spurs. He has relied on a double pivot, normally Rodrigo Bentancur and Joao Paulinha, to provide stability in midfield while his back four all stay in conventional areas of the pitch.

This provides passing lanes which make a high press difficult to employ, but with six outfield players committed to the first phase of build-up, advancing the ball from the double pivot has been Spurs’ difficulty.

Yet against the Blues, the stability of a double pivot will be vital in preventing Maresca’s creative players from dominating the middle of the park. The benefit of a fixed double pivot is that when Spurs lose the ball, they are already set to defend the central areas which Chelsea value so highly in their 3-box-3 shape.

Yet at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Sunderland provided a blueprint to teams eager to prevent Chelsea establishing their preferred shape.

From the early stages, Sunderland condensed the space between their defensive and midfield lines, which in turn closed off the potential for Chelsea’s backline to advance the ball centrally.

As a result, by the second half, the box dropped deeper, and players ended up receiving possession far deeper than where Maresca intends.

Moves and Countermoves

Should Tottenham manage to do something similar this weekend when they settle into their 4-4-2 out of possession, then they are likely to force Chelsea into giving possession away and leaving themselves vulnerable.

Chelsea’s in-possession shape is particularly vulnerable to counterattacking balls into wide areas, which just so happens to be one of Spurs’ key strengths.

Both Djed Spence and Pedro Porro are consistently given the freedom to take up high positions when Spurs recover possession (see below). If Chelsea give the ball away, they will likely have to defend overloads on each wing before they can get into a settled defensive structure.

Closing Thoughts

Chelsea have won each of their last four meetings with Spurs, and it’s over two months since Frank’s men claimed a home league victory, but Saturday presents a chance for the Dane to deliver a result which would earn him the respect of many in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s a game suited to his team’s strengths, and with him expected to name an unchanged eleven from the team that beat Everton last weekend, it could be a perfect storm for Spurs to earn a result at home.

Yet Maresca will be all too aware of that. Chelsea always offer something near their best against Tottenham, and after stumbling at home to Sunderland last weekend, the Blues will be eager to right some recent wrongs.

As a result, the two teams will go toe-to-toe this weekend, and both have plenty to prove. Expect drama, intensity, and little to separate them come full-time on Saturday.

Score Prediction: 2-2

Paid subscribers can read our Liverpool vs Aston Villa and Man City vs Bournemouth previews. 👇

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Our GW8 tactical previews are for:

•⁠ Manchester United v Brighton

• Aston Villa v Manchester City

Manchester United v Brighton

Manchester United’s victory at Anfield caused a fallout so seismic that the public discourse around the two clubs seemed to flip on the outcome of one Harry Maguire header. Suddenly, Liverpool are in crisis and Ruben Amorim’s Red Devils - hot off their first back-to-back league wins under his tenure - have turned a corner and have started to develop confidence.

Confidence is one thing, but anyone who watched last Sunday’s clash will have noted that United’s win stemmed from accepting their inferior quality and preying on Liverpool’s vulnerabilities in the right moments rather than a dominant performance. But with Old Trafford welcoming Brighton & Hove Albion at 5:30 on Saturday, Amorim’s side will be the one expected to set the tempo and control the game. And that, to many United fans, is a scary proposition.

Brighton, meanwhile, sit one point behind United after eight league games, are unbeaten in their last four, and have conquered Manchester City and Chelsea so far this season. Fabian Hurzeler’s men are riding high despite ongoing trouble with injuries. As such, the Seagulls are poised to land a killer blow against United fans’ growing optimism.

Pressing Issues

It feels harsh to criticise the Red Devils after their first win at Anfield in almost a decade, especially considering the endless turmoil United fans have endured in recent years, but if there is one facet of their game that was undeniably poor against Liverpool, it was their press. United didn’t engage a high press much, but when they did, it was remarkably poor.

In the image above, United somehow manage to have three players within five yards of Dominic Szoboszlai on the ball, but don’t move to close him down or to cover off his passing lane into Mohamed Salah. Not only does this leave Mason Mount (enlarged) utterly dumbfounded by the lack of coordination, but it also allows Liverpool to play one line-breaking pass and have plenty of space to run at the United defence in a three vs three situation.

This was the outcome pretty much every time United looked to engage a high press. Perhaps because of this, Amorim shifted to a more zonal approach out of possession, and while that limited how exposed the defence was, it also caused its own issues.

United’s 3-4-3 invites pressure by nature, as having an extra centre-back requires losing a player in the middle of the park. This allows for more cover in the last line of defence but also limits how effectively pressure can be applied to the ball.

This is the case in the image above, as United are sat in a 5-2-3 shape out of possession. With the forward line bypassed, it leaves just two midfielders to cover the passing lanes for potential through balls in the gaps between the back five. The issue is exacerbated in this situation as United aren’t playing a high line (which would limit the opponent’s space and time on the ball) or a low block (which would limit the space in behind the United defence). They are caught out in no-man’s land opening the door for Ibrahima Konate to play a line-breaking pass to Alexander Isak in behind.

The Soaring Seagulls

And if there is one team whose attacking modus operandi is line-breaking passes, it is Brighton.

Progressive passes were the source of both of Brighton’s goals against Newcastle last weekend. Above, see how Jan Paul van Hecke fires a pass into Georginio Rutter through the heart of the Magpies’ midfield. Below, see Yasin Ayari doing the same, this time finding Mats Wieffer.

Brighton’s Progressive Passes per 90

- Jan Paul van Hecke 6.79 (top 3%)

- Lewis Dunk 4.72 (top 19%)

- Joel Veltman 4.85 (top 17%)

(Data from FBRef. Percentiles given in relation to positional peers in Europe’s top five leagues.)

Given United’s previous difficulties defending the space between their midfield and defensive lines, it seems likely that Brighton will target these areas with extra impetus this weekend.

To combat this, Amorim may choose to stick with Mason Mount in his front three over Benjamin Sesko, as the Englishman is undoubtedly the Portuguese’ best presser.

But that’s not the only threat that Brighton pose to United.

Last weekend, Senne Lammens went exclusively long to bypass the Liverpool press. And it worked: United not only won the game, but they didn’t play themselves into unnecessary trouble.

This gives the Red Devils’ boss a dilemma between reverting to trying to play out from the back as they have done previously, or sticking with this lower-risk means of build-up. Hurzeler’s Brighton are exceptional in a high press and will commit every player to it if the situation is right. See below how van Hecke has charged out of position to pressure Joelinton into playing a pass straight to Danny Welbeck.

One thing that might change though, is that Amorim might start Maguire as his central centre-back, the player who pushes into play a pivot role when United’s defence have possession.

This is the most important position of Amorim’s build-up play, as the player is relied upon to receive the ball under pressure while also playing on a line by himself (so often being isolated). As such, it’s vital that whoever plays this position is confident in possession.

In the past, it has often been Matthijs de Ligt who has adopted this role, but the Dutchman has looked highly uncomfortable. Maguire has more of a track record with this style of play, so if Amorim decides to stick with the team that beat Liverpool, it gives his team an improved chance of bypassing Brighton’s player-to-player press.

Diallo and Mbeumo To Be Key

Should they be able to build reliably, they are likely to focus their attacks down their right-hand side, just as they did against Liverpool. With Amad Diallo likely to start at wing-back and Bryan Mbeumo as the half-winger, the United right poses much more threat than Diogo Dalot and Mount on the left.

This tactic worked well against Liverpool as Milos Kerkez was the player responsible for closing Diallo whenever he got possession. This often resulted in the Liverpool defence being lopsided, with Virgil Van Dijk forced to follow Mbeumo out wide.

Hurzeler will anticipate this, and assign Ayari and Kaoru Mitoma (who is expected to be back from injury) to mark Diallo, providing cover for Ferdi Kadioglu in the process.

Closing Thoughts

Both teams head into Saturday knowing that a win will likely see them finish the weekend in the European spots. It has potential to be a fiercely contested battle decided by how each manager overcomes the other’s plans.

Brighton are capable of posing a serious threat to United, especially if Amorim looks to return to a more possession-heavy style of play, but the Red Devils’ momentum is undeniable. Expect goals.

Score Prediction: 2-2

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Our GW8 tactical previews are for:

•⁠ Fulham vs Arsenal

• Liverpool vs Man United

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from The Redmen TV’s Chloe Bloxam, who, despite Liverpool’s form, is excited about Sunday’s big game. 🗣️📱

Subscribe to Chloe’s YouTube and watch her brilliant match reactions here. 🔴

Fulham vs Arsenal

Fulham welcome Arsenal to Craven Cottage this weekend, providing a big challenge for the home side against the league leaders following back-to-back Premier League losses against Aston Villa and Bournemouth.

The Gunners will be hoping to further cement their spot at the top of the table, having only dropped points against title rivals Liverpool and Man City this season so far.

How Will They Line Up?

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With Raul Jimenez looking set to return, we could see Fulham go back to their 4-2-3-1 formation, rather than the 3-4-3 that they lined up in for their 3-1 defeat to Bournemouth.

Arsenal can be expected to lineup largely as we’d expect them too, with the main question being whether we see Martin Odegaard, following Eberechi Eze’s incredible start at Arsenal, with their number ten starting in midfield in their last two league games.

Arsenal’s Impenetrable Defence

Arteta’s side, who have become known for their brilliance defensively, have only conceded three goals this season so far, which added to their second highest goals scored in the league with 14, they continue to look like strong title challengers.

Following Liverpool’s recent collapse, with three losses coming in a row after a perfect start before that, Arsenal fans will be hoping to see their team go on to make themselves true favourites for the title, if they weren’t already.

A win against Fulham, with a strong defensive performance which we’ve come to expect from Arsenal, is the next step into making that reality, though it won’t come easy.

Can Fulham Break Arsenal Down?

Fulham have shown time and time again that they can play excellent attacking football, with brilliant footballers such as Harry Wilson and Alex Iwobi able to create and take chances, such as the beautiful goal we saw from Wilson against Brentford.

Arsenal, however, will be a much bigger challenge, especially without their starting striker in Rodrigo Muniz who is a huge part in Fulham’s attacking play.

With only 7.20 expected goals, compared to Arsenal’s 12.21, it’s hard to see them breaking down the best defence in the league easily, if at all, which makes it seem as though it could be a routine win for Arsenal.

Who Will Be The Key Players?

Eberechi Eze

Eze, who has scored once and assisted twice for Arsenal so far, as well as picking up a goal for England during the international break, gives Arsenal extra creativity and bravery, which they seemed too lack a bit before he joined.

His ability to create chances, make the most of transitions and score goals will always make him one to watch in any game he plays.

It will be important that Fulham, namely Sander Berge and Sasa Lukic, if he is fit to play, can try their best to keep him quiet which would be no small feat, as he continues to shine at his new club.

Joachim Andersen

While it will be important that the whole Fulham defence is switched on during this game, none more so than Andersen, who will likely be tasked with facing Arsenal striker Viktor Gyokeres.

With the Swedish striker tending to drift to the left, as seen in his season heatmap, where he will come up against Fulham’s right hand side, Andersen will be expected to win his duels against Arsenal’s number 14, limiting the chances he gets as much as he can.

Gabriel Magalhaes

Gabriel, who has once again played brilliantly this season, will also be expected to win his duels, against veteran Jimenez.

While it would likely come as more of a challenge if the Arsenal defence faced Muniz, Jimenez won’t be easy for them either, who got Fulham’s only goal against Aston Villa in their last game.

Gabriel will need to be ready for the physical battle, with Jimenez undoubtedly set to target him after Nick Woltemade’s goal earlier in the season, where he went down under minimal pressure allowing the Newcastle striker a free header.

The Brazilian centre back will also need to keep providing threat from attacking set pieces, though this almost definitely won’t be an issue for him as it has become synonymous with his and Arsenal’s game.

With the league positions of both sides being fourteenth and first, it is no surprise that Arsenal look like heavy favourites going into the game in West London.

It would come as quite a shock if the game didn’t end in a win for Arsenal and it looks very unlikely that Fulham will be able to get anything out of the game considering the Gunners’ firepower going forward and stalwart defence.

Prediction – 0-3.

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For GW7 on The Narrative we’re analysing:

•⁠ Leeds vs Spurs

• Chelsea vs Liverpool

This week’s Fan Voice Note is from Talent ID Scout and Analyst Sam, aka @CFCCentral3, who isn’t confident about Chelsea’s chances against an out-of-form Liverpool. 🗣️📱

Toughest Elland Road Test

Leeds United will be undefeated at Elland Road for 384 days by the time Daniel Farke’s men take to the field on Saturday, and it will take an assured, confident performance from Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur to bring that run to an end.

Both teams will be content with their starts to the season: Leeds already have a four point buffer above the relegation zone, and Spurs have kept pace with the top four across the opening six game weeks. Yet Saturday, heading into the campaign’s second international break, will decide whether either team is more than just content.

A Leeds win will likely see them enter the table’s top half, but if Frank’s men can get a result on the road, their recent draws against Wolves and Bodo/Glimt will quickly become a distant memory.

The Fortress of Yorkshire

Many will attribute Leeds’ home form to elements of the game that are largely intangible: opponents being wary of the fiery Elland Road atmosphere, players giving that ‘extra 5%’ because Leeds fans wouldn’t accept anything else.

Yet having held two of the Premier League’s most consistent performers, Newcastle and Bournemouth, to draws so far this season, there are clearly tactical, more easily measured strategies that Farke has instilled in his side in order for them to perform so strongly at home.

Take Bournemouth last weekend, for example. The Cherries claimed away scalps including Arsenal and Newcastle last season, with Andoni Iraola employing an intelligent high-press which frequently unsettled teams in front of their own fans, while remaining entirely infallible themselves.

Yet when they travelled to Elland Road, they looked not only unsure, but actually vulnerable due to how Farke set out his stall.

In the image above, Leeds have successfully drawn out, and played through, the Bournemouth forward line. But due to the Cherries’ hybrid press overloading bodies on one side (in a bid to win the ball back), they are forced to play the ball quickly.

His teammates are aware of this, and as a result Noah Okafor drops in to receive a pass under close pressure. With Bournemouth being man-to-man, successful build-up often hinges on players being able to win individual duels.

And that’s exactly what Okafor does, overpowering the Bournemouth midfield and laying the ball into space in order for Leeds to mount an attack in behind. It’s the kind of tactic that only works when your players feel compelled to give that little bit more to every involvement they have over the course of a game.

Frank’s Gameplan

Farke has expertly crafted a style of play that perfectly suits Leeds’ identity of always giving 110%, especially at home. But how could that come into play against Tottenham?

Frank has previously expressed that a high press is a “non-negotiable” for his Tottenham side, and that will surely be the case on Saturday.

Against Wolves, Spurs employed a man-to-man press with Lucas Bergvall playing a hybrid role between closing down the goalkeeper and narrowing a passing lane into midfield.

As such, below is how Leeds will expect Tottenham to look when Karl Darlow, the Leeds goalkeeper, is in possession. At least one of the Spurs wingers will attach himself to one of the centre-backs to limit the goalkeeper’s short options.

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Yet the image above comes at the start of a passage of play in which Wolves break through Spurs’ press, and end up in the final third. Spurs press high, but they’re not ultra-aggressive. They prefer to maintain an overload at the back – note how Micky Van de Ven and Christian Romero are both marking Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the image below – meaning that the opponent will have a spare player. In this case, it would be Gabriel Gudmonsson who offers Darlow an ‘out ball’.

This will be pivotal to the outcome of Saturday’s game – particularly in the early stages. Spurs are yet to win a game in which they have conceded first this season, so if Leeds can utilise their ability to progress the ball and assert themselves over Tottenham, Frank’s men might be in for a tricky afternoon.

Tottenham’s Problem-Solving

It’s well documented that Frank is currently fighting with one arm behind his back, with Dominic Solanke and James Maddison among the list of Tottenham’s attacking injuries. As such, the Dane has had to find a way for his team to create high-quality chances.

Richarlison has been the forward chosen to lead the line so far this season, and his three league goals have helped Spurs to eleven points of a possible eighteen. But as a different type of player to Solanke, Frank has adapted his team’s forward line to better suit the Brazilian’s style of play.

Richarlison thrives on using relationships with his teammates to link-up attacks. As such, Frank has encouraged his players to drive into the box to provide a more direct attacking threat.

Below, Bergvall and Destiny Udogie have positioned themselves either side of Richarlison to support the Spurs number nine in the box, rather than having players deeper in order to better circulate possession. It’s an increased risk (as it also weakens Spurs’ rest defence), but one Frank has accepted in an attempt to solve their attacking issues.

In emptying the midfield, the importance of summer signing Joao Palhinha becomes even more prominent. On Saturday, he will have moments acting as a sole central midfielder – making the Portuguese’s composure in possession, and his intelligent defensive positioning, vital to Tottenham’s potential success.

Leeds To Continue Unbeaten Run

It’s easy to frame this game as a ‘must win’ for Tottenham: one of England’s superpowers visiting one of the promoted sides – but that ignores much of the great work Farke has done at Elland Road. Leeds won’t see themselves as underdogs, and will be expected to at least start on the front foot on Saturday.

It’s very feasible that Leeds ‘flying out the blocks’ catches Tottenham out early on, but it’s equally difficult to ignore the quality of the likes of Richarlison, Mohammed Kudus and Xavi Simons at the sharp end of Spurs’ attack. Both teams are likely to score, but given Leeds’ recent home record, predicting that Farke’s side will lose seems foolish.

Score Prediction: 1-1

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For GW6 on The Narrative we’re analysing:

•⁠ Brentford vs Man United

• Chelsea vs Brighton

•⁠ ⁠Spurs vs Wolves

• Newcastle vs Arsenal

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from the Arsenal Vision Pod supremo Clive , who is apprehensive ahead of Sunday’s big game at St James’ Park. 🗣️📱

Brentford vs Man United

On the back of a win against Chelsea, Ruben Amorim will be looking to finally make it two wins in a row for the first time in the Premier League since he joined.

Brentford won’t make that easy for Man United though, as they’ll look to get another good result at home this season despite their poor away form.

How Will They Lineup?

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Brentford are expected to remain unchanged despite the loss to Fulham, with Keith Andrews unlikely to go outside of his trusted names so far this season, though he will be expecting stronger performances all round.

Man United are set to make two changes from their win against Chelsea, with Manuel Ugarte replacing the suspended Casemiro and Amad Diallo making way in favour of the returning Matheus Cunha, as United fans will be excited to see their new front three start together for the first time this season.

Dangerous Long Throws

Having scored seven goals from throw-ins since last season and recording the highest expected goals from throw-ins in the Premier League each season since their promotion. and have recorded the highest expected goals from throw-ins in the Premier League each season since their promotion, it has become a part of Brentford’s identity.

Graphic from Sky Sports - Long throws: How Brentford became the Premier League kings in this department amid goal spree

Their main threat against Fulham were Michael Kayode’s long throw-ins, which Fulham dealt with well and the same will be expected of Man United this weekend if they want to come away with a win.

With Trevoh Chalobah’s scoring a header against Chelsea, we should expect Harry Maguire to play the full game against Brentford as he will be looking to win his aerial duels, especially from the throw-ins that could cause serious issues if not dealt with properly.

Sesko vs Collins – A Key Individual Battle

One thing that impressed for Manchester United against Chelsea was Benjamin Sesko’s flick on in the lead up to Robert Sanchez’s red card, as mentioned in the Fallout.

This would see him naturally pitted up against Nathan Collins who struggled with Rodrigo Muniz in the air against Fulham, and United fans will be expecting the same from their big summer signing.

If Sesko can replicate a performance like Muniz had, excelling in the air and showing some excellent hold up play, this will be the key to beating Brentford, opening the game for Mbeumo, Cunha and Fernandes who are all more than capable of creating chances for others and themselves.

The Brentford Press

We saw against Fulham how good Brentford can be in their pressing, with the first goal of the game coming from their man to man press as well as some expert anticipation from Mikkel Damsgaard in recognising the right time to leave his man to cut out Josh King’s poor pass.

This is something that could be used against Man United, who have struggled with central progression and beating pressing structures already this season, particularly against Man City, with too much reliance in their build up on players who aren’t comfortable with the ball.

When looking at the stature of both clubs, you’d usually expect this to be a run of the mill game for United, however, they’ve shown time and time again that this probably won’t be the case.

Brentford have been almost the cliché ‘tough game’ in recent years, but for good reason, and with Keith Andrews looking to truly make his name, a good result against the Red Devils could be huge in doing just that.

There will be a lot expected from Benjamin Sesko, and having yet to impress significantly so far, against Brentford’s typically solid defensive unit, I could see the game being decided in that key tactical duel of Collins and Sesko.

Prediction – 1-1.

Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea are back at Stamford Bridge this Saturday as they take on Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton.

Following their 2-1 loss to Manchester United in a poor performance after Robert Sanchez’s red card, the Blues will be looking to bounce back against the Seagulls.

Brighton, who have won once in the league this season against Manchester City, will be hoping to do it again against a ‘big six’ side on the back of a 2-2 draw against Spurs.

How Will They LineUp?

With Robert Sanchez suspended, Filip Jorgensen is set to start in goal for Chelsea, as well as Andrey Santos expected to replace Cole Palmer who is set to miss the game through injury, meaning that Enzo Fernandez is likely to start in a more advanced role.

Brighton will likely remain mostly unchanged from their game against Spurs, with Diego Gomez likely to be rewarded for his four goals against Barnsley in the Carabao Cup with a return to the starting eleven over Brajan Gruda.

How Can Chelsea Improve?

The performance against Man United was nowhere near good enough, even while acknowledging that Chelsea were down to ten men for longer than their opposition.

With Maresca’s comments that he would rather concede a goal than see a red card at that stage of the game, it’s not likely that we’ll see a Chelsea player getting sent off anytime soon.

Defensively, Chelsea seemed almost passive when the ball came into the box, not doing enough to challenge the second ball, particularly for Casemiro’s goal, allowing Luke Shaw far too much space in the box as they waited for it to fall back down, and this is something which surely has been worked on in training leading up to this game.

With Estevão and Pedro Neto set to start again, hoping to remain on the pitch longer than last week, we could see significant improvement from Maresca’s side, who would then be less reliant on Reece James’ crosses.

James and Marc Cucurella should be able to deliver higher quality crosses with the wingers back too, as the wingers allow more options for the fullbacks going forward, able to come inside to form a pentagon in midfield, more likely than the usual box we see due to Fernandez playing as the 10 rather than Palmer.

The fullbacks could also come outside to provide the width, creating space for the wingers to find more dangerous positions on the inside.

How Can Brighton Defend This?

Brighton will be expected to defend in a 4-5-1 shape in the second phase of play, as we have seen from them this season in previous games, sat behind the ball looking to cut off the passing lanes through the middle with the striker putting pressure on the ball.

This will force Chelsea to go out wide where Jan Paul Van Hecke and Lewis Dunk will be expected to deal with any crosses that come into the box, though this will be risky due to the quality of Chelsea’s wingers one on one, as well as Cucurella and James’ crossing ability.

On The Counter

If they can contain the Chelsea attacking movements, we can expect Brighton to look to hit Chelsea on the break, with Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh’s pace able to cause issues for most teams in the Premier League.

We have seen their prowess going forward on the counter this season, with Minteh’s goal against Spurs highlighting both wingers’ willingness to make the run as soon as they win the ball back, with the Gambian’s pace too much for Spurs as he got in behind to finish the first goal of the game.

With Chelsea’s defence looking shaky at times this season, there is no reason that an impressive Brighton side can’t cause Chelsea a lot of issues going forward like they did against Man City and Spurs in particular.

Chelsea will be looking to put their stamp on the game, especially with how poorly they played against both Man United and Bayern Munich, and it would be expected that the players step up, specifically the wingers who will want to prove something.

Chelsea at their best have looked like title contenders this season, and it is hard to imagine that they would be happy with anything but a comfortable win.

Prediction – 2-0.

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It’s GW5 and this week on The Narrative we’re analysing:

•⁠ Liverpool vs Everton

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Chelsea

• Fulham vs Brentford

•⁠ ⁠Sunderland vs Aston Villa

•⁠ Arsenal vs Man City

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from City fan Steven Mcinerney, who is not confident ahead of Sunday’s big game at The Emirates. 🗣️📱

Liverpool vs Everton

Derby Day Upset?

Everton fans would probably be the first to admit that the Merseyside Derby is rarely billed as an evenly matched affair. Yet despite Liverpool, already Premier League champions, spending €355 million more than the Toffees over the summer, the gap between the two feels smaller than it has in previous seasons.

That is first and foremost, a testament to the work of David Moyes, but it is also an indicator that Liverpool are not an unstoppable force. They have chinks in their armour, and Everton may be perfectly equipped to exploit them.

The Slot Machine Strikes Again.

Arne Slot acknowledged that Liverpool were “lucky” to beat Burnley last weekend – and few would argue that Hannibal Mejbri’s late mix up between football and volleyball was part of the Reds’ plan. Yet Mohamed Salah’s 95^th minute strike was his second, and Liverpool’s fourth goal past the 88^th minute so far this season. They just keep finding ways to win.

Turf Moor was something of a fortress and the Clarets defended well, but Liverpool were underwhelming in the quality of their chance creation and how they went about dismantling the Burnley defence.

One key reason for this was a lack of box presence from the Reds – particularly in the first half. This stems from many of Liverpool’s attacking players being keen to play in the same areas: typically the left half-space.

Florian Wirtz made this area of the pitch his own when he was at Bayer Leverkusen, but Hugo Ekitike also has a tendency to drop deep and try to get on the ball in the same space. Add in Milos Kerkez and Cody Gakpo, at least one of whom were constantly occupying this space. Liverpool were left with a lack of central threat, and no one applying direct pressure to Burnley’s defensive line.

This allowed Burnley to remain passive in their defensive shape, never being drawn out of their 5-4-1. Even after some substitutions, the Reds remained risk averse, applying very little pressure on the Clarets’ backline and often leaving Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike and Salah outnumbered or in non-threatening positions.

So how might that apply to the Merseyside Derby? With Everton likely to settle for a small share of possession but also offering explosive counterattacking ability, Slot will have to nail the balance of his side if Liverpool are to give their home crowd a derby day to remember.

Alexander Isak seems unlikely to start having played 58 minutes on Wednesday, but there is every chance he’ll be introduced as a substitute – potentially alongside Ekitike if Slot feels his attack needs an extra body in the box.

Liverpool’s focus down their left side could also be shifted slightly. James Garner, a central midfielder by trade, played at left-back last weekend. The Englishman did a stellar job, but if the Reds were to target Salah and try to isolate him and Garner, there is surely huge potential for the Egyptian king to make the difference in the derby. It would be a switch up from their approach so far this season, but Slot has shown he isn’t opposed to adapting to swing the percentages further in his side’s favour.

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Moyes’ Men Poised To Strike

The blue half of Merseyside was inarguably, unlucky to share the points with Aston Villa last weekend, as David Moyes’ men produced over two xG, had three big chances and were the dominant side on the day.

They successfully limited the space in midfield to prevent Villa’s creative midfielders from having the time to cause damage, with the gaps between their midfield and defensive lines being minimal. Everton’s defensive 4-4-2, has made the Toffees a tricky side to break down so far this season.

But that’s not to say that Moyes’ men will go to Anfield praying for a 0-0 – far from it. Everton have become adept at transitioning quickly into their attacking shape, by finding Iliman Ndiaye or Jack Grealish, their attacking wide players, as soon as possible after winning the ball back.

This was the source of some of Everton’s best chances last weekend. Both wingers are so confident driving in possession that they can cause panic among opponents – as seen by the fact that four Villa players converged on Ndiaye in the image below.

By drawing defenders in, it creates space for Everton’s other attackers to receive the ball. In this scenario, Ndiaye found the on running Idrissa Gueye, who quickly shifted the ball over to Grealish, who was left 1v1 with Matty Cash.

Fast transitions have already hurt Liverpool against Bournemouth this season, as their rest defence was caught out on several occasions. Add into the mix the derby day atmosphere and the fact that Everton will undoubtedly be fired up, and it arguably becomes the game to watch this weekend.

The decisive factor though, will likely be Liverpool’s aforementioned ‘balance.’ If Slot overcommits attacking players to compensate for his side’s lack of spark against Burnley, then it will leave the Reds vulnerable to Ndiaye and Grealish. Alternatively, if he opts for a lower risk approach, then they may struggle to create high-quality chances and leave themselves open to some Everton derby day magic.

Man United vs Chelsea

It’s easy to argue that Manchester United and Chelsea have shared the best non-city related rivalry in English football since the turn of the century. Brewed in the 2000s with Jose Mourinho’s Blues disrupting Sir Alex Ferguson’s dynasty, and continued into the 2010s when Chelsea took over as England’s most successful club for that period.

Since then, both clubs have endured tough times, but only the Blues have been able to consistently bounce back. Now Club World Cup champions, Enzo Maresca’s men have their ambitions set on a league title. The red side of Manchester meanwhile, will be heading to Old Trafford this weekend praying that their beloved United aren’t embarrassed on the big stage two weeks running.

Having said that, recent history between the two is fairly even. Two wins and a draw for each side across their last five meetings – but don’t let that suggest that Saturday evening will be an even contest.

The Reds’ Devils

Ahead of the Manchester derby last week, my piece in The Narrative centred around how Amorim’s men could exploit the weaknesses in the Manchester City press by moving the ball quickly into wide areas with an aim to create overloads – and avoiding the central areas in which their build-up has been underwhelming.

If this was part of United’s plan, to say it was executed poorly would be an understatement. In the image below, Altay Bayindir has just passed the ball to Lenny Yoro, whose closed (arguably negative) body position gives him a choice between Mathias De Ligt and Manuel Ugarte in the central areas, or the option he chooses: returning the ball to his goalkeeper.

Yoro could have opened his body position to enable him to maybe slip a pass into Noussair Mazraoui at right wing-back, but that doesn’t address the issue at its core: United’s build-up relies on players who aren’t comfortable on the ball.

Take the moments leading up to Erling Haaland’s incredible miss: Ugarte plays a stray pass to De Ligt, who panics and fires a ball straight into Jeremy Doku.

The same applies when United reach the final third. In the image below, note that it is Luke Shaw and Manuel Ugarte entrusted to find the line-breaking pass to create a chance. It simply doesn’t seem right.

There is also a significant gap between the lines, meaning any passes would have to be pinpoint – asking far too much of the players in the midfield line.

The Blue-Print

Contrast this to the assured, meticulously planned build-up of Chelsea. They have reliable, press-proof players in the appropriate positions, and Maresca’s 3-box-3 enables them to progress the ball between the lines in consistent patterns.

It essentially means that they always have four players in central areas able to circulate and progress the ball. Compare that to United’s two in midfield, and the potential story of Saturday’s clash between the two starts to write itself.

So Amorim’s choice of De Ligt pushing into midfield in build-up seems to only create problems, and United don’t seem to have the personnel capable of playing in a two-man midfield. In the image above, the United midfield is simply overwhelmed – meanwhile De Ligt, as the third centre-back, acts as a wasted player.

Yet Brentford played a back five and limited the Blues’ chance creation last weekend, so what’s different about Keith Andrews’ approach?

Firstly, the Bees played a 5-4-1 and remained narrow to prevent Chelsea having the space to play in the central final-third areas. They also kept a small gap in between the lines to limit the impact of the two most advanced players in the box midfield.

Would Amorim Change?

Limiting the space for Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Marc Cucurella and Joao Pedro to operate is vital to United’s hopes this weekend. And it’s hard to see how they can do that if Amorim persists with his current structure.

That begs the question of whether the Portuguese would swallow his pride and adapt. United’s squad is better suited to a 4-2-3-1, and the additional body that this would provide could be hugely beneficial against Chelsea.

The Blues will look to progress the ball centrally, before shifting it out wide and try to create space in behind for a cutback. If United switch to a back four, they lose the wasted third centre-back in exchange for an extra midfield body, allowing the wingers to defend wider to accommodate this.

Old Trafford

With pressure mounting on Amorim, this weekend does feel like a major ‘stick or twist’ moment. Chelsea are so reliable with their build-up that it’s difficult not to see a Blues victory, unless the United boss makes a few changes.

Having said that, it’s not necessarily a must-win game for Amorim. Gary Neville highlighted the importance of a “fast start” for the Red Devils in order to get the home crowd behind them, but after the United board publicly proclaimed their support for Amorim, the only expectation for Saturday will be a respectable home performance.

For Maresca’s men, a win will see them take an impressive eleven points from a possible fifteen to start the season – so it would more than make up for the dropped points at Brentford last time out.

As discussed, it’s difficult to imagine a world that United take anything from this game, particularly after their performance last weekend. Amorim may see it as somewhat of a free hit, with many people seemingly writing the home side off. A change in structure, whether that’s to a back four or just tweaking the 3-4-3 to suit his personnel better, would help his chances. Chelsea will head to Old Trafford and look to ride the wave of an upbeat Old Trafford crowd for the first ten minutes and then look to assert themselves as the dominant side. If the Blues achieve that, they will find success on the road.

Fulham vs Brentford

Blunt Bees Take On Quiet Cottagers

Fulham and Brentford are arguably the Premier League’s two most similar clubs. They share more than just west London: similar journeys to the top flight, similar praises for being well-run – and unfortunately for them, similarly underwhelming starts to the season.

Yet Craven Cottage could play host to an exciting encounter this weekend, as both teams have reasons to believe that their campaigns are poised to burst into life.

Fulham Can’t Leave Kevin At Home

Fulham only producing five shots across ninety minutes against Leeds probably says enough about a performance which left most of Craven Cottage asleep by half-time. There was such a lack of tempo, a lack of commitment throughout most of the game that Gabriel Gudmundsson was probably sleepwalking by the time he gifted Marco Silva’s men the win in stoppage time.

The attacking areas were so devoid of creativity that Kevin, Fulham’s new record signing and Brazilian winger, produced more successful crosses than anyone on the pitch, despite only playing fifteen minutes.

The 22-year-old revived the home fans in the closing stages with his trickery and direct play. He drew Leeds defenders towards him and showed his diverse skillset – nearly scoring a screamer after a quick one-two and repeatedly driving towards the box.

He will surely start against Brentford, who despite probably getting a point against Chelsea last weekend, have shown defensive fragility so far this season, particularly when teams can shift the ball forward quickly. Kevin could be key to exploiting that, whether he starts on the left with Alex Iwobi shifting into attacking midfield, or on the right in place of Harry Wilson.

Above, Enzo Fernandez wins the ball back and fires it into Joao Pedro, who turns and plays the ball forward before Brentford can transition into a settled defence.

As a result, there is a huge gap between the Bees’ defensive and midfield lines, allowing for Marc Cucurella to find space on the edge of the box to receive a cutback and shoot. If Fulham’s goalscoring troubles – they have scored just three league goals so far, including an own goal – are to be overcome, this Brentford weakness could be essential.

Bees Finally Find A Buzz

While a lack of creative spark was certainly the more poignant talking point for most of the afternoon, the Cottagers also looked unsure defensively – best demonstrated by how Anton Stach managed to stumble through four Fulham defenders by simply running in a straight line.

While Brentford haven’t been prolific in front of goal so far this season (understandable considering the loss of Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo), they showed promising signs against Chelsea, which they could carry into this weekend.

These signs came after Keith Andrews made the choice to play a 3-5-2 rather than the 4-2-3-1 he had previously explored. Kevin Schade and Igor Thiago operated brilliantly as a forward pairing, both understanding the shared roles that come with playing two strikers.

This was evident for Brentford’s first goal. Thiago drops deep to receive the ball, drawing Trevoh Chalobah out of position in the process. He lays it into the midfield, allowing Jordan Henderson to play a lovely through ball into Schade, who is left 1v1 against Tosin Adarabioyo.

Neither Fulham nor Brentford will be particularly high on confidence, but it feels like Andrews’ men will be the group in higher spirits ahead of the derby – despite Fulham being the team that won last weekend. It will likely be a cagey affair with both teams struggling for attacking rhythm so far this season, but there are reasons to be argued for both teams that their rhythm is just around the corner. As such, we might see some magic.

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The Premier League is back and so is The Narrative. For GW4 we’re analysing:

•⁠ Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

•⁠ ⁠Bournemouth vs Brighton

•⁠ ⁠Burnley vs Liverpool

•⁠ Man City vs Man United

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from United fan Double A who has a BOLD prediction for the Derby. 🗣️📱

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

Ange Postecoglou will take charge of Nottingham Forest for the first time this Saturday against Arsenal who will be looking to get a win on the board after their 1-0 defeat against Liverpool.

The former Celtic and Spurs manager has been the subject of many questions following Nuno Espirito Santo’s departure, and a win at the Emirates could be exactly what they need to alleviate the early pressure.

How Will They Line-Up?

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Arsenal would be expected to make three changes from their starting eleven at Anfield: Cristhian Mosquera replacing the injured William Saliba, Martin Ødegaard’s return to full fitness and Eberechi Eze’s much needed creativity.

Nottingham Forest will be without Ola Aina through injury this weekend, and with Oleksander Zinchenko unable to play against his parent club, Morato would be expected to come in at left back. Douglas Luiz could be set to come in following Ibrahim Sangare’s poor performance against West Ham, with the away side potentially looking to prove a point following Nuno’s rifts with Global Head of Football, Edu Gaspar.

What Can We Expect From Postecoglou’s Side?

With Evangelos Marinakis’ appointment showing a clear intent to play more attacking, exciting football, moving to the opposite end of the spectrum to Nuno, what should we expect to see on Saturday?

With the Australian showing commitment to playing his risky brand of football while at Spurs, it would be hard to expect anything less from him at Nottingham Forest.

While looking back at his time in North London, we can expect his side to get very high up the pitch, with the wingers getting high and wide, keeping a good attacking structure, and the full backs coming inside.

Both the full backs and the wingers will also be expected to make runs on the outside and the inside causing issues for the opponent’s defence, however, with Morato coming in as a makeshift left back, this could be a lot less intense.

They will be expected to press aggressively and high, looking to win the ball back and immediately committing players forward when they do.

A big concern for a lot of Nottingham Forest fans, will be the risk of the high line, especially when it comes to Nikola Milenkovic, a brilliant box defender who was perfectly suited to Nuno’s system, but could be exposed by his lack of pace in an Postecoglou side, with so much space left behind him.

One thing that is guaranteed with their new manager is excitement, though the risks will be a lot to bare for the players who are used to playing a low defensive line leaving a lot of space to drive into in front of them.

How Can Arsenal Exploit A New-Look Forest?

Mikel Arteta has been accused of the opposite of Postecoglou, avoiding risk too much to the hinderance of the Gunners going forward, so what needs to improve going into this weekend?

Arsenal have the best defence in the league, largely because of their risk averse ways, but they definitely need to create more and show bravery going forward if they want to win the league, with only four teams with lower expected goals from open play this season.

Eberechi Eze’s ability to play between the lines, create chances for his teammates and himself and his ball carrying abilities could be exactly what they need against Forest that could win them the game.

Eze, who managed three goals and one assist in three games against Postecoglou’s Spurs, showcased his abilities when he scored the second goal against Spurs in May of last season, carrying the ball through his own half, playing an outside of the foot pass through to Ismaila Sarr to take the Spurs defence out of the game, then arriving late in the box and getting on the end of the cross to finish excellently.

The Arsenal number ten will be expected to start at the Emirates this weekend, and it looks ever likely that he will be the decider against Forest with what he adds to Arteta’s side, looking far less afraid to take risks than the likes of Ødegaard.

With Postecoglou coming into a side that are used to a very different style of football, against one of the best sides in the league, it is hard to imagine that Nottingham Forest will be able to get a result.

While most football fans will be aware of ‘new manager bounce’, with little time for Postecoglou to implement his exciting brand of football, as well as Arsenal’s desire to get back to winning ways with new star Eze, it looks ever likely that the Gunners will get the job done.

Prediction – 3-0

Bournemouth vs Brighton

Bournemouth and Brighton will both be looking to pick up where they left off following the international break, with both sides coming off impressive wins against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City.

How Will They Line-Up?

Bournemouth are expected to remain unchanged from their impressive win in North London, though Justin Kluivert’s return from injury could cause a dilemma for Andoni Iraola.

Georginio Rutter and Mats Wieffer are expected to come back into the starting eleven following their returns from injury. Brajan Gruda should be rewarded for his late goal with a start and Yasin Ayari could potentially come in for Jack Hinshelwood.

Pressing, Pressing, Pressing

Iraola’s Bournemouth have come to be known for their excellent pressing structure, so how did that help them in beating Spurs?

A high press against Spurs, with a lot of emphasis in cutting Cristian Romero and Pedro Porro out of the game was a masterclass from Bournemouth. This forced Guglielmo Vicario to find Micky Van de Ven, who attempted long balls up to Richarlison. This might have worked for Spurs but Bournemouth’s superior duelling, especially in the first half, meant that they were unsuccessful in getting out.

Evanilson’s goal highlighted how they were able to target Porro, with both Adrien Truffert and Antoine Semenyo to worry about, leaving a huge space for Senesi to play the ball through to the striker who scored with a deflection off Romero.

Bournemouth looked brilliant, managing 10 shots against the North London side in the first half, and were unlucky not to have scored more, while completely limiting their opposition who didn’t make a single attempt at goal in the first 45.

Can Brighton Beat Bournemouth’s Press?

Brighton were happy to allow Man City to camp in their half in their 2-1 win, encouraging them to commit more bodies forward, and leaving bigger gaps between their central defenders. When the opportunity arose after winning the ball back, they would break and make their way to the other end. They matched Man City’s and had higher expected goals (2.30-1.82) despite only having 36% possession.

This still from the game shows nine Man City players in the Brighton half, leaving John Stones on his own in defence. Yankuba Minteh won the ball from Rayan Ait-Nouri following this Rodri pass which led to only three City players backpedalling towards Kaoru Mitoma as he shot forcing James Trafford into the save.

Amongst these counter-attacks that were executed so well, Brighton weren’t afraid to play the long ball which could signal an upper hand over Bournemouth and their path to victory against Tottenham Hotspurs. Gruda’s late winning goal came from a Lewis Dunk long ball.

This poses a dilemma for Iraola who would want to press high like his team usually does, but Fabian Hurzeler’s side has clearly proven their ability on the break, albeit against Man City’s struggling defence.

Who Makes The Difference?

In what will likely be a close affair between two impressive, well coached teams, it may come down to a moment of magic from either team, so who is well equipped to be relied upon come 3pm on Saturday?

With two incredible goals against Liverpool, an assist against Wolves and the winner of his battle against Porro, Semenyo could be the first name on people’s minds for a difference maker in a game like this. With the second most goals and second most shots in the league this season, he has started off very lively.

Gruda has only managed eight starts in the last two seasons, however, what better way to introduce yourself into becoming a first team regular than a late winner against Man City. A strong performance from the young German could be just what he needs to cement a starting place.

It would be hard to ignore David Brooks, looking back to his best this season. Rutter’s return should see him come into the starting eleven, giving him the opportunity to tip the scales.

It would be impossible to ignore the tactical head-to-head as the key factor in this game, however, with both managers more than capable of setting their teams up for victory, it looks likely that the game will come down to who has the better players.

Bournemouth have the edge when it comes to the quality of their players, and this could easily be the deciding factor.

Prediction – 3-1

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It’s only GW3 and The Narrative is already palpable in the Premier League. This week we’re analysing:

•⁠ Chelsea vs Fulham

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Burnley

•⁠ ⁠Brighton vs Man City

•⁠ ⁠Liverpool vs Arsenal

• Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from Alex Moneypenny who is hoping to see Arsenal’s first win at Anfield in almost 13 years this weekend. 🗣️📱

Chelsea vs Fulham

It is a testament to Marco Silva and Fulham that their West London derby with Chelsea has become something of a genuine rivalry between the two clubs. It was only in 2023 that the Cottagers ended a seventeen year winless run against the Blues, and last season they went one better, winning at Stamford Bridge for the first time this century.

The two clubs have made steady starts to their league campaigns, and a derby win for either side this weekend would certainly bolster fans’ optimism heading into the season’s first international break.

Chelsea’s Impressive Start

Maresca has spoken extremely positively about both of his side’s league performances so far this season, and for good reason. They were arguably unfortunate not to beat Crystal Palace after creating more and higher quality chances than the Eagles, and while West Ham were unquestionably poor last Friday, the Blues were ruthless in making the Hammers pay for their errors.

Yet in between West Ham’s terrible efforts to produce some cohesive defending, a few of Chelsea’s actions were genuinely impressive – and act as a telling sign of how they intend to play when Cole Palmer is unavailable, as is expected to be the case this weekend.

Maresca’s versatile use of his full backs has perhaps been the most talked about structural point of Chelsea’s set up since the italian took over last summer, but against West Ham last week, his use of Marc Cucurella and Malo Gusto was the nail in the coffin for an already struggling Hammers side.

Between their usual roles inverting into the Blues’ box midfield, both of Maresca’s full backs also were also available as genuine wide options from time to time.

Whenever Chelsea entered the final third, the pair were seemingly given the freedom to choose to move inside (as they normally do), or drift out wide to create space for the wingers to move into central areas.

In the absence of Palmer, these outside movements allow Chelsea’s most creative players – particularly Brazilian teenager Estevao – to enter dangerous areas more frequently.

This was the case for Chelsea’s third goal at the London Stadium. Gusto drfted out wide to allow Estevao to make a driving run inside. The Frenchman played the ball into Liam Delap, who utilised his physical profile to act as a backboard to present Estevao an opening to drive into.

This flexibility in structure proved able to mitigate the potential creative problems Chelsea could have had without their usual talisman.

It also allowed them to continue a plan that had clearly been the case against Crystal Palace on the opening weekend: creating opportunities for cutbacks.

Maresca has directed his players to target the half spaces within the opposition box as priority number one. Time after time against both Palace and West Ham, the Blues have looked to create chances through these areas. And for good reason.

Anyone who was lucky enough to watch Manchester City reach 100 points in 2017/18 will be able to recall dozens of this type of goal, and it is the result of targeting these spaces that City were able to so consistently produce high quality chances. Maresca, a true disciple of Pep Guardiola, seems to have taken yet another page out of the Spaniard’s book.

It is worth saying that while this did work against West Ham – in between scoring from what felt like every corner – it didn’t produce a goal against Palace. And with Fulham certain to be resolute in their 4-4-2 midblock, it will likely take patience and persistence from Chelsea if they are to find a way past the Cottagers.

Can Fulham Pose A Threat?

Fulham meanwhile, have plenty to be positive about despite being yet to win a game. Two comeback goals from substitutes has demosntrated their strength in depth despite their inactivity in the transfer market, and having dismantled the Blues at Stamford Bridge last season, they will be optmistic about doing the same again this weekend.

Key to their potential success will be Antonee Robinson, who was instrumental in their equaliser against Manchester United last weekend.

As seen below, Robinson makes an inside run while Alex Iwobi holds possession on the left wing. In doing so, the American draws Lenny Yoro, Manuel Ugarte and even Mathias de Ligt away from goal, allowing Emile Smith Rowe to drift into the vacated space and finish.

It should go without saying that Chelsea’s defence will be more difficult to break down than United’s, but with Fulham’s range of attacking options being backed up by a resolute midfield and defence, there is no reason to discount them from producing another upset at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Man United vs Burnley

Now this could be an interesting game. Both fanbase’s moods have dramatically switched from preseason to game week 3. Burnley fans are optimistic after a great result last against fellow promoted side Sunderland after previously holding low expectations post promotion. However, Amorim’s united isn’t being received well, especially after a poor Fulham performance, a terrible night away at Grimsby and the treatment of Kobbie Mainoo. I’d even suggest that this could be the Portuguese’s final game as manager.

How Will They Line Up?

The only expected change in my opinion would be the introduction of France u21 winger, Loum Tchaouna. After exciting of the bench and playing a crucial role in Burnley’s second goal last weekend against Sunderland, he should replace an underwhelming Jacob Bruun Larsen.

Pass, Pass, Pass, GO!

Burnley have found success by balancing their previously utilised heavy possession-based style of play with a new focus on transitions. Ultimately, the back four and double pivot look to retain the ball short, enticing the opposition onto them before releasing the ball wide for their wide players to receive in isolation and carry them on transition. This was heavily used against Sunderland especially their second goal, where Tchaouna was able to receive the ball behind Sunderland’s press into space to carry into. This style of play is able to be implemented due to the recruitment of Ugochukwu, which in my opinion is a fantastic piece of business. The Frenchman is exactly what a bottom half premier league side needs in midfield, I’m surprised he didn’t make a move slightly higher up the food chain. His ability to break up play, carry and retain possession is crucial to Burnley’s style of play.

Their style of play is furthered by their strength’s out wide. Jaidon Anthony, for me, is one of the most underrated players in the league. A combination of his ability to carry the ball over distance, 1v1 threat and decent output exemplifies this Burnley side. His as a n individual and Parker’s Burnley as a whole’s skillset was demonstrated by their late goal last weekend to make it 2-0.

Get At Them

I believe Burnley will rock up to Old Trafford on Saturday with a smell of blood. I expect their out of possession shape to reflect this. So far this season, when out of possession, Burnley have shifted to a back five with the ball side winger tucking deeper and shuffling the back four across to maintain stability and full pitch defensive coverage.

This suits playing against Amorim’s 343 system implementing a man-to-man system, as shown above, could lead to a low in confidence United side to struggle. In midfield pushing Cullen and Ugochukwu high onto their opponents double pivot attempting to suffocate them. Combing this with Anthony and Mejbri allowing the wide centre half’s to possess the ball but cutting central passes into the midfield off forces the ball wide into United’s wing backs. Similarly to how Burnley defended against Spurs and Sunderland they sat narrow forcing the opposition wide and invited crosses into the box. This of course comes with its risks, however the ability that both Esteve and Ekdal possess in the air should minimise this risk.

Who Will Play?

After a particularly poor start, post a decent performance against Arsenal, I’m expecting a few changes. I believe Bayindir will come back into goal, not ideal, but a change that’s necessary post Grimsby. The midfield hasn’t worked, and I believe Amorim will face internal pressure to adapt slightly and bring in Mainoo and push Bruno higher. Leading to Cunha up front.

Get Bruno The Ball

Central progression just hasn’t been a possibility at United over the last year. With the expected press in midfield from Burnley, they’d be better suited to just ignoring this, as you can see below due to Burnley’s wide players blocking the central areas a pass from the outside centre halves into the wingbacks is the simplest form of progression. When playing with the ball against man-to-man pressure, movement is crucial.

As the graphic above displays, Bruno dropping in to receive and dragging his marker higher up the pitch can create space for vertical runs from Cunha. In order for this to work, Mainoo and Casemiro must drop deep and bring Burnley’s midfield onto them to create the space. It also necessitates successful combination’s between the wing backs and the ‘10s’ to pull their opponents out of position. United have attempted this style of play before and have often been successful, however due to the fixture being at home and pressure already mounting playing such a vertical style of play may not sit well with the fanbase or themselves, however in a fixture so dependent on result they cannot afford to play into Burnley’s hands and shouldn’t attempt to dominate the ball through central sequences of play.

Repeated Mistakes

Everyone and their dog knows that United’s out of possession shape is easily exploitable. The vacant space left in between the lines of the defence and midfield was encapsulated by Iwobi’s performance last weekend, this was followed by the Nigerian’s post-game interview. Where he said, “We knew that we would be able to get behind their two midfielders, and their three centre-backs immediately jump, so we were able to execute that."

The above graphic implies the space that former United player, Mejbri will find himself in. If this isn’t fixed the Tunisian international will be able to receive the ball and due to a centre back having to jump there will be space for Burnley’s wide players to move into.

So, in order to fix this, without completely changing system, they too can switch to a man-to-man system. As shown below, a more aggressive approach out of possession. With Casemiro dropping deeper into a single pivot within a midfield three of Mainoo and Fernandes provides far more coverage and prevents vacant space. This is slightly risky and places a lot of trust in their wide centre half’s to defend 1v1, however due to Burnley’s defensive full backs they generally won’t be overloaded and Amad and Dorgu can drop back to support.

Finally, I believe this could be a very difficult game for the home side, after a massive set back in the week I struggle to see the players and coaching staff alike being able to motivate themselves into a winning model. However, due to sheer quality in attacjing areas, I expect them to score at least.

Burnley can ensure victory through concentration when man to man and the correct decision making on the break. If they can nail this, then they could easily come away from Old Trafford with three points.

Prediction: 2-2.

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GW2 is dripping with Narrative in the Premier League, and this week we’ll be analysing:

•⁠ ⁠West Ham vs Chelsea

•⁠ ⁠Man City vs Spurs

•⁠ ⁠Arsenal vs Leeds

•⁠ ⁠Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

• Newcastle vs Liverpool

This week’s Fan Voice-Note is from Kendall Rowan who is excited about the Champions going to St James' Park on Monday. 🗣️📱

West Ham vs Chelsea

The opening game of the weekend will see Graham Potter take on his old side Chelsea, with the Blues facing their 2nd consecutive back five side in the last two weeks.

Against Palace, Chelsea struggled to progress the ball through the Eagles defensive block, who set up in a 5-2-3 in order to limit space centrally.

Several issues prevented Maresca’s side from effectively playing through the lines, as Levi Colwill and Tosin Adarabioyo were unavailable, whilst Trevoh Chalobah had to play on the left side of defence, which isn’t optimal for his passing angles due to his right foot bias.

Chelsea averaged the longest sequence time of any Premier League team last weekend (14.55 seconds), playing the highest percentage of sideways passes (67.8%) and the lowest percentage of forward passes (22.7%).

With West Ham setting up in a back five too, Maresca could be inclined to switch the dynamics of this team in order to have optimal passing angles across his backline with a left-footed left centre-back and a right-footed right centre-back.

The return of Tosin to the lineup will be a huge bonus for the Chelsea boss, as the defender averaged 3.23 progressive passes per 90 last campaign, making 4.14 passes into the final third per 90 and being a key progressor from the central centre-back role.

West Ham set up in a 5-2-1-2 defensive shape against Sunderland, splitting their front two and having Lucas Paqueta apply pressure to the lone pivot (Granit Xhaka). With this narrow front five in the press, it will be even more important for Chelsea to access those wide pockets of space between the wide centre-back and winger, in order to manipulate West Ham’s defensive block.

With the Chelsea wingers pinning the West Ham wingbacks deep, it will open the space for the number eights to drop and receive OR the wide centre-backs to carry forwards, allowing Maresca’s side to efficiently progress the ball to the final third and control proceedings. However, if the Blues are to get their first win of the new season, they will have to be more clinical, having failed to score against Crystal Palace last weekend despite generating 1.60 xG.

Manchester City vs Tottenham

Our second game of the weekend should be a very fun one, Manchester City taking on Tottenham, a fixture that produced eight goals in three matches last campaign and has proven to be a tricky one to navigate in the past for Pep Guardiola’s men, with Spurs being something of a bogey team for them.

In Tottenham’s two competitive fixtures under Thomas Frank so far, we have seen two different systems designed for two different gameplans. First, we saw Spurs take a two goal lead against PSG in the Super Cup, adopting a five at the back formation and looking to be much more direct in transition.

Against Burnley, Frank’s side set up in a 4-3-3, holding 67% possession and scoring three goals, playing much more on the front foot, taking 16 shots and putting 27 crosses into the box, the 2nd highest in the Premier League on the opening weekend, only behind Chelsea with 29.

So the big question against Manchester City is how will Frank set up?

The likelihood of Frank opting for a back five against Manchester City, adopting a similar gameplan as they did to good effect against PSG is high, playing away from home against one of the best sides in the league.

With the expectation of City dominating possession in this game, Tottenham will be looking to maximise their efforts in transition, being well drilled off the ball and looking to take advantage when the opportunities present themselves.

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An area of focus for exploiting this Manchester City team will be down their left side, as Rayan Ait-Nouri’s dynamic fullback role offers a chance for teams to benefit from their new principles being coached.

The addition of Pep Lijnders as Guardiola’s assistant this summer has already seen dramatic changes to their pressing habits and defensive scheme, with an emphasis on effective counter pressing to nullify the opposition's transitional threat.

With Ait-Nouri being aggressive to jump up in the counter press, Mohammed Kudus will have the opportunity to exploit the space behind the fullback, which will likely be Tottenham’s best route for generating chances in this game.

Arsenal vs Leeds

Arsenal vs Leeds, two sides built for physical purposes in the Premier League, importance on winning duels to establish control in a game. The Gunners were out duelled by Manchester United last weekend, winning 43% of the duels in the match, which allowed Ruben Amorim’s side to take control of the game, holding 61% possession, getting 22 shots off but failing to find the net despite their 1.52 xG.

Leeds, on the other hand, went toe to toe with Everton, another side built for the physicality of the Premier League, as Daniel Farke’s side won 49% of their duels, holding 54% possession and taking 21 shots in the game (generating 2.13 xG).

Ethan Ampadu suffered a knee injury vs Everton so could be replaced by Sean Longstaff or Ilia Gruev.

Winning those duels in the middle of the park will be key for both sides, as Leeds look to generate chances via third man combinations in their wide triangles, whilst Arsenal are currently looking to generate chances with more direct attacks, averaging the second highest direct attack speed last weekend (2.41 m/s), only Crystal Palace having higher (2.44 m/s).

The midfield three of both teams will decide this game, as whichever trio can come out on top in regards to duels will allow their side to implement their gameplan best.

If Leeds are able to win the battle, Arsenal will struggle to deal with the combinations and movement in wide areas, whilst if Arsenal win the battle, the likelihood of catching the Leeds fullbacks out of position as they go to join the attack will be high, leaving space for the Gunners to hurt them in transition at pace.

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It's GW1 of the Premier League, this week on The Narrative we'll be diving into:

•⁠ ⁠Liverpool vs Bournemouth: Reds’ Title Defence To Face Testing Start

•⁠ ⁠Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Who Blinks First?

•⁠ ⁠Chelsea vs Crystal Palace: Cucurella The Key?

•⁠ ⁠Man United vs Arsenal: Amorim’s Big Decisions

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Liverpool’s Community Shield defeat is unlikely to drain optimism from Anfield. After a summer transfer window most fanbases could only dream of, Arne Slot’s side begin their Premier League title defence at home to Bournemouth on Friday night. With it also being Liverpool’s first league game since the passing of Diogo Jota, it will be an emotional occasion for all involved.

History gives them reason to feel comfortable: 11 wins from the last 12 meetings. But Andoni Iraola’s side earned a reputation last season for making life uncomfortable for more fancied opponents — and will fancy testing a Liverpool back line still bedding in under its new manager.

Defensive Exodus

The Cherries have of course, lost three of their most-used back four from 2024/25, and while there will likely be some teething problems that emerge as a result of this, they have acquired centre-back Bafodé Diakité and left-back Adrien Truffert as potential replacements.

Diakité arrives as an established ball-playing defender, confident in possession while maintaining a 59% duel success rate in Ligue 1 last season.

Diakité Key Stats

• 92.7% Pass Completion (top 8%)

• 63.83 Passes Completed per 90 (top 13%)

• 50.65 Carries per 90 (top 11%)

• 0.22 Challenges Lost per 90 (top 11%)

• 71.6% Aerial Duels Won per 90 (top 6%)

• 4.28 Ball Recoveries per 90 (top 27%)

• 0.65 Tackles Won per 90 (bottom 15%)

• 0.92 Interceptions per 90 (bottom 33%)

Stats from FBRef. Percentiles given compared to positional peers in Europe’s top five leagues over the past year.

As evidenced by above, Diakité’s ability with the ball is almost unquestionable – it’s defensively that he may be exposed.

Due to these defensive frailties, Andoni Iraola may be relying on his side’s largely unchanged attacking unit to exploit some of the question marks that have arisen about the Liverpool backline.

Reds’ Defensive Blues

The result of the Community Shield is never a huge amount to read into – but Crystal Palace’s goals last weekend may have revealed a few potential tactical vulnerabilities of this season’s new-look Slot machine.

As seen below, both Palace goals derived from forwards finding pockets of space between the Liverpool backline. A turnover in midfield allows Jean-Phillipe Mateta to find space to run in behind Virgil Van Dijk and alongside Ibrahima Konate – with the two centre-backs being caught between stepping up and dropping off. It results in the French forward winning a penalty.

For the second goal, former Cherry Milos Kerkez heads the ball into the midfield, causing Alexis MacAllister (circled), who was sitting in as essentially a third centre-back after a defensive transition, to take the view that his side had won the ball, and move back into midfield accordingly.

Yet when another turnover leads to Palace regaining possession, Ismaila Sarr finds himself unmarked, with space to run into and to score accordingly. Couple that with Van Dijk choosing to step up and Konate remaining unmoved, and the Reds’ defence looks a bit of a mess.

Transitions seem to be an area of vulnerability for this iteration of Slot’s Liverpool. And which team had the most shot-ending high turnovers in the 2024/25 Premier League? Bournemouth!

Bournemouth’s hybrid press – forcing the ball into one area of the pitch in the hopes of closing space down quickly – has the potential to cause Liverpool some problems at the back. But that’s without considering the incredible quality the Reds boast at the other end of the pitch.

Star Quality To Shine

But in equal measure, they have some serious firepower of their own which will put the makeshift Cherries’ defence under pressure. Hugo Ekitike’s debut in the Community Shield demonstrated his versatile skillset brilliantly, while Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo exhibited early signs of a blossoming interchange down the left-hand side.

In addition to this, Slot’s side showed multiple times last season that they are more than happy to play over a press – firing long balls into Mohammad Salah or any willing runners.

Now that we’ve mentioned Salah, it’s worth noting that any of Liverpool’s defensive frailties pale in significance compared to the mismatch Bournemouth may face against the Liverpool frontline. Despite not looking the finished article during the Community Shield, it seems likely that the Reds are able to overwhelm the Cherries’ defence time and time again, especially if they are given settled possession.

Iraola may look to combat that truth by committing entirely to the high-energy approach that brought success last season, but should his players even slightly misstep, Liverpool will likely have the ruthless finishers to get their title defence off to a winning start.

Bournemouth’s intensity will create moments where Liverpool’s defensive shape is tested, but Slot’s side have too many ways to hurt opponents for any gaps to go unpunished. If the hosts keep their composure against the press and exploit the space it leaves, they should begin their title defence with three points - and send an early reminder of the quality that made them champions.

Every week, we’ll be asking a fan for their thoughts on a game, and to start the season in style, The Redmen TV’s Ste Hoare shares his views in our first Fan Voice-note. 🗣️📱

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

In a summer transfer window that has felt at times like a relentless player merry-go-round, Newcastle and Aston Villa head into this weekend with only one or two new signings likely to start between them. Combine that truth with both sides’ established styles of play, and the Saturday early kick-off seems in some ways, set to look similar to the last time the two teams met.

Villa dispatched Newcastle 4-1 back in April, and on that occasion, it was the midfield duels which told quite a story.

Midfield Duels Won in Aston Villa vs Newcastle 19/04/25

• Aston Villa 15/24

• Newcastle 12/25

Both teams will likely play a 4-3-3, both sides trust their midfielders to gain control through direct duels. It is these battles: Tielemans against Tonali, Guimaraes against Kamara, which have the power to decide the game. Both the Belgian and Brazilian have the creative prowess to produce moments of magic at the slightest opportunity.

An Isak-Shaped Hole

However, there have been a few key changes to both team’s squads since their last meeting – most notably to Newcastle’s. With Howe making it clear that he feels he “can’t involve” Alexander Isak at Newcastle as things stand, the Magpies’ attack will likely be led by Anthony Gordon this weekend – with Harvey Barnes and new signing Anthony Elanga alongside the Englishman.

Gordon played through the middle just twice last season – which, while a small sample size, gives a good indicator into how he approaches playing as a sole centre forward.

Against Everton, as seen below, Gordon is more than happy to drop deeper in an effort to get involved in Newcastle’s build-up, not in a dissimilar fashion to how Isak would.

It is when the ball goes over to the right-hand side that a key difference emerges. With Gordon having spent most of his career playing on the left-wing, his natural instinct is to try and drift behind defenders, towards the back post when a cross comes in. This differs to Isak, who would likely look to dominate the middle of the box and use his physical profile to beat a defender in the air.

This isn’t a huge problem by any means, but it does raise questions over how ruthless Newcastle can be in front of goal without the physically imposing Isak. And Gordon’s physical profile may not boast the same strength as Isak, but he does possess equal running power.

Against Manchester City last season, he positioned himself well – on the shoulder of a City defender – to make a curved run in behind and receive a through ball while running at nearly full speed. It allows him to get in behind and on this occasion, win a penalty.

With Villa likely to look to control possession, it is this running power – in conjunction with Barnes and particularly Elanga’s explosive pace – that give the Magpies their best chance of breaking down Emery’s resolute defence.

Emery Evolution

In terms of Villa going forward, things look far more settled. Despite losing Marco Ascencio and Marcus Rashford, they remain well equipped in forward areas. Morgan Rogers has returned to training following an injury during preseason, and should he be fit to start, his partnership with Ollie Watkins and Donyell Malen across the front three will be vital to Villa’s hopes at St James’ Park.

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As seen above, Ian Maatsen will be expected to offer Villa’s width down the left-hand side, allowing Rogers and Watkins, as well as Youri Tielemans, to rotate as they look to break down the Newcastle defence. Malen meanwhile, could serve as a great poacher-style forward, drifting in from the right to finish off attacking moves. If Lewis Hall is even slightly less than match fit as he returns from injury, the Dutch forward could find regular opportunities – and even prove to be a matchwinner.

So, despite perhaps lacking the ‘difference makers’ of last season, there are plenty of positives in both teams’ attacking areas which are sure to put their opponent’s defence under pressure. Which makes the fact that both teams have very settled defences – unchanged from last season – a huge relief for both managers.

With both midfields set to scrap for control and both defences largely settled, the margins here will be fine. Villa’s rotations in attack and Newcastle’s pace on the break give each side a clear route to goal - but it’s equally a game that could be decided by a mistake as by a moment of quality.

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